Demographic vs economic variables in the modelling and forecasting of the demand of aggregates: The case of the Spanish market (1995–2016)

Escavy, J.I.; Herrero, M.J.; Sanz-Pérez, Eugenio

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101537

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Due to extraordinary circumstances (e.g., pandemics [40]), one can infer that the data would be fitted resulting in different parameters, but in the long run, the differences in the results would be marginal, specially for such a small location. In this framework, only consistent changes in demographics or economics [41] and the implementation of demand side management schemes (i.e., demand response) would lead to important changes in the probabilistic parametrization of the random variables and, thus, in the results. Consequently, irradiance (I(h)) and demand coefficients (D(h)) replace the random variable X seen through Equations ( 16)-( 27), and modulate the behavior of the PV generation and the demand, respectively.…”

Section: Der and Demand Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Convex Stochastic Approaches for the Optimal Allocation of Distributed Energy Resources in AC Distribution Networks with Measurements Fitted to a Continuous Probability Distribution Function

Osorio

Rosero

2023

Energies

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This paper addresses the optimal stochastic allocation of distributed energy resources in distribution networks. Typically, uncertain problems are analyzed in multistage formulations, including case generation routines, resulting in computationally exhaustive programs. In this article, two probabilistic approaches are proposed–range probability optimization (RPO) and value probability optimization (VPO)–resulting in a single-stage, convex, stochastic optimal power flow problem. RPO maximizes probabilities within a range of uncertainty, whilst VPO optimizes the values of random variables and maximizes their probabilities. Random variables were modeled with hourly measurements fitted to the logistic distribution. These formulations were tested on two systems and compared against the deterministic case built from expected values. The results indicate that assuming deterministic conditions ends in highly underestimated losses. RPO showed that by including ±10% uncertainty, losses can be increased up to 40% with up to −72% photovoltaic capacity, depending on the system, whereas VPO resulted in up to 85% increases in power losses despite PV installations, with 20% greater probabilities on average. By implementing any of the proposed approaches, it was possible to obtain more probable upper envelopes in the objective, avoiding case generation stages and heuristic methods.

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Section: Der and Demand Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Convex Stochastic Approaches for the Optimal Allocation of Distributed Energy Resources in AC Distribution Networks with Measurements Fitted to a Continuous Probability Distribution Function

Osorio

Rosero

2023

Energies

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“…Aggregates serve as a fundamental component of infrastructure and are the main component of various construction materials, including concrete, mortars, and asphalt mixes [2,5,6]. They are the second most consumed product globally after water [2,7,8]. Furthermore, the annual production volume of aggregates positions it as the leading sector in the non-energy extractive mining industries [2,3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They play a vital role in providing access to housing and infrastructure, but their impact on society and the environment has not been analyzed in detail. Furthermore, the development of proper policies related to their extraction and environmental and socioeconomic influence, as with other raw materials, requires the definition of how much of them is needed and supplied [8,11]. This will also serve to establish potential sustainable policies and determine realistic recycling possibilities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of Aggregates Quarries via Computer Vision Analysis as a Tool for Sustainable Aggregates Management and Land Planning

López-Acevedo,

Herrero,

Escavy

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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The mineral raw materials industry is crucial for European industry, with the European Economic and Social Committee estimating that 70% of the industry relies directly or indirectly on its supply. In the context of a decarbonized and digitalized economy, the new European industrial model requires carbon-neutral raw materials and production processes. The crucial role of aggregates mining, as the primary construction material, emerges as a key supplier in this paradigm. Aggregates are the main component of the built environment and are a social and economic engine in most countries. Quarries of this type include a wide range of sizes and exploitation methods and use characteristic mining and processing equipment. Quarries are commonly close to their processing plants, which transform natural rock into crushed and ground materials with different grain sizes depending on the future uses. The quarry itself and the presence of certain equipment and facilities help distinguish it from mining sites that exploit other materials. Effective management of aggregates quarries is important in promoting circular economy practices, ensuring efficient management, reuse, and recycling of diverse wastes, including the recovery of high-value components and the production of recycled aggregates, and addressing construction and demolition waste (DCW) management. As aggregates become a progressively scarcer resource due to the increasing demand from developing countries, it is essential to provide reliable and comprehensive information on their potential to the public, policymakers, and other stakeholders to promote their use. This study focuses on employing artificial intelligence and computer vision analysis to automatically identify aggregates quarries from satellite images within continental Spain. A model has been trained to detect aggregates quarries from satellite images by computer vision. The model permits the detection of mining exploitation and the objects located at the interior, which permits determination of the type of mine and the activity status of it. The findings highlight the ability of artificial vision to discern quarries and distinguish whether the observed feature is an aggregates quarry. Additionally, the technology allows for the determination of the quarry’s operational status, distinguishing between active and abandoned quarries. The ability to detect the locations of quarries and assess their activity statuses is of significant value for resource exploration initiatives and location-allocation assessments. It can be a valuable tool for authorities involved in land planning, activities monitoring, and early detection of potential illegal mining activities. This analytical approach demonstrates substantial potential for various stakeholders, including mining companies, mining authorities, policymakers, and land use planners in both the private and public sectors.

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“…These ratios are similar in contexts from software development to construction industry [2]. Although the performance of construction projects has been traditionally low [3][4][5][6][7], their impact on the growth of the international economy over the past 40 years has been crucial in Africa [8], America [9], Asia [10], Europe [11] and Oceania [12]. This performance is affected by many factors [13,14], both relational (such as change requests or stakeholder needs and expectations) and technical (such as constraints and assumptions or threats and opportunities).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Knowledge on Managing Risk for the Success in Complex Construction Projects: The IPMA Approach

et al. 2022

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Organizations undertaking construction projects often deal with uncertainty and complexity. Risks include a wide range of occurrences that can lead to project failure. However, these difficulties may be minimized if risks are properly managed. In addition, knowledge management may emerge as a key element in facing unforeseen events and detecting the actions that are working well in other projects. In this context, this study intends to demonstrate the influence of managing organizational knowledge on risk management and the impact of both on the success of projects and associated businesses. To this end, a questionnaire was distributed among construction technicians, practitioners and managers in order to assess the importance of factors managing knowledge and risk and of success criteria. Thanks to the participation of almost four hundred respondents, cause-and-effect relationships are characterized by means of structural equation modeling, statistically confirming them. The specific links between the knowledge-management projects and the skills and abilities to face risks provided by the International Project Management Association (IPMA) standards, with a relation of 0.892 out of 1, justify the 75.1% of the success of the venture. These findings prove that the application of IPMA proposals enhances the required knowledge that leads to improved completion and delivery of complex construction projects in risky environments.

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Demographic vs economic variables in the modelling and forecasting of the demand of aggregates: The case of the Spanish market (1995–2016)

Cited by 15 publications

References 24 publications

Convex Stochastic Approaches for the Optimal Allocation of Distributed Energy Resources in AC Distribution Networks with Measurements Fitted to a Continuous Probability Distribution Function

Convex Stochastic Approaches for the Optimal Allocation of Distributed Energy Resources in AC Distribution Networks with Measurements Fitted to a Continuous Probability Distribution Function

Identification of Aggregates Quarries via Computer Vision Analysis as a Tool for Sustainable Aggregates Management and Land Planning

The Influence of Knowledge on Managing Risk for the Success in Complex Construction Projects: The IPMA Approach

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