Demographic Resilience: Linking Population Dynamics, the Environment, and Security

Abstract

Demographic trends are important among the range of factors that motivate or deter political instability. Over the past several decades, countries with very young age structures-those in which at least 60 percent of the population is younger than thirty years of age-have been much more likely to experience outbreaks of conflict than those with a broader population distribution across different age ranges. Young people are a country's key human resource and the embodiment of future potential for development. However, when individual insecurity combines with changing demographics, governance challenges, and other socioeconomic conditions, state security can also be threatened. Youth bulges, increasing urbanization, and violations of women's rights, as with natural resource scarcities, can exacerbate or mitigate the direct factors that may trigger a conflict. This article examines the ways in which demographic trends influence security considerations, highlighting some key considerations in light of the reality of climate change and drawing policy implications for the security, humanitarian, and development communities. It suggests that when countries find ways to harness population dynamics they enhance their "demographic resilience" and find ways to plan for the shocks and stresses associated with climate change that may increase their conflict potential. D emographic-related phenomena, including disenfranchised young men, population growth in urban centers, and violations of women's rights, may contribute to political instability, extremism, and violent conflict. These dynamics, together with natural resource scarcities and an inability to adapt to climate change, can further exacerbate factors that trigger conflict. This combination of factors can challenge a government's legitimacy, its capacity to provide sufficient jobs, education, and resources for its population, and its ability to effectively govern and address civil unrest.This article examines resilience in the face of conflict and climate change fragility from a perspective that is not often explored-a demographic lensand highlights the ways that existing research and policy have begun to address demography's effect on environmental security. In particular, it suggests that demographic resilience-the ability of a government to harness its age structure, urbanization, and gender dynamics for its overall well-being-provides Roger-Mark De Souza is the director of population, environmental security, and resilience for the Wilson Center. He leads programs on climate change resilience, reproductive and maternal health, environmental security, and livelihoods, including the Global Sustainability and Resilience Program, Environmental Change and Security Program, and Maternal Health Initiative.

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