Demographic correlates of paternity confidence and pregnancy outcomes among Albuquerque men

Abstract

We examine the demographic correlates of paternity confidence, or men's assessment of the likelihood that they are the genetic father of a particular child. Evolutionary theory predicts that men will provide less parental investment for putative genetic offspring who are unlikely to be their actual offspring, but confidence of paternity has not been as extensively examined as its importance would merit. Using self-reported data on paternity confidence in 3,360 pregnancies reported by men living in Albuquerque, New Mexico, we find that low paternity confidence is more common among unmarried couples and for unplanned pregnancies. We also find that men are more likely not to state paternity confidence (i.e., they refuse to answer the question) if a pregnancy is unplanned. We additionally examine the pregnancy outcomes associated with confidence of paternity. We find that low paternity confidence pregnancies are significantly more likely to be aborted, and pregnancies for which paternity confidence is unstated are more likely to be aborted or to miscarry. Both abortion and miscarriage are associated with unmarried couples, with unplanned pregnancies, and with couples who have fewer children together.

How Well Does Paternity Confidence Match Actual Paternity?

“…For example, in order for the population nonpaternity rate to be 10%, 75% of men in the population would have to have high paternity confidence (nonpaternity p 3.3%) and 25% low paternity confidence (nonpaternity p 29.8%). Anderson, Kaplan, and Lancaster (2005b) report that men living in Albuquerque, New Mexico, do not believe that they are the fathers of 1.46% of children attributed to them, implying a total nonpaternity rate for that sample of 3.7%. I know of no other study that has estimated the frequency of low and high paternity confidence within a particular sample, though this clearly has important implications for child wellbeing and family dynamics.…”

“…Most of these studies include mother/father/ child trios, and many contain primarily or exclusively married couples. Since men in marriages are likely to have higher paternity confidence than men who father children outside of marriage (Anderson, Kaplan, and Lancaster 2005a), this will further bias the sample toward men with high paternity confidence. Some men in this sample undoubtedly do not have high paternity confidence; additionally, the studies may have included covert adoptions, misidentified stepchildren, etc., for whom paternity confidence is zero.…”

Evolutionary Contributions to Solving the “Matrilineal Puzzle”

“…If this is the case, increased levels of wealth might be positively correlated with increased paternity certainty in offspring when paternal investment is significant and men exert control over resources important to reproduction. The empirical significance of paternity certainty or confidence in affecting paternal investment in offspring (e.g., Anderson et al 2006;Flinn 1981;Gaulin and Schlegel 1980;Greene 1978;Kurland 1979) and wealth in impacting sex-biased transmission of resources (e.g., Cronk 1989;Mace 1996;Trivers and Willard 1973) is well-established. Because these are currently modeled as separate, independent effects on sex-biased transmission of wealth, the MDBI model probably underestimates the synergistic effects of these two variables when acting together.…”

“…Though several empirical studies indicate that paternity confidence is associated with the level of paternal investment (e.g., Anderson 2006;Anderson et al 2006;Gaulin and Schlegel 1980;Huber and Breedlove 2007;Flinn 1981;Lancaster and Kaplan 2000;Marlowe 1999), 1 the level of paternity certainty necessary to produce conditions under which men are likely to be more related to their matrilateral nieces and nephews is probably unrealistically low (Flinn 1981;, ranging from a probability of paternity (P) of 0.268 (Greene 1978) to 0.33 (Alexander 1974(Alexander , 1977Kurland 1979) in the short-term, to 0.46 if the compounding geometric effects of paternity on relatedness over several generations are included (Hartung 1985). These levels are well below certainty rates of 0.9 cited by most researchers (usually cited in terms of uncertainty at 10%; e.g., Alfred 2002;Cervino and Hill 2000;Stewart 1989;all cited in Anderson 2006), and the observed certainty levels both in "high paternity confidence" societies (0.981) and "low paternity confidence" societies (0.702; all figures from Anderson 2006).…”

If looks could heal: Child health and paternal investment

“…7 In such fragile families, infidelity and sexual distrust abound (Hill, 2007); and so, paternal confidence may be relatively low (Anderson et al, 2006). Paternity may be less of an issue in traditional or cohabiting families, as fathers are already spending much time there in child investment than in single-mother families.…”