Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

Abstract

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany’s population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany’s balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany’s population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today’s point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Demografie und Spendeaktivität von Blut- und Plasmaspendern in Deutschland

“…Entsprach im Jahr 2010 die Anzahl der unter 18-Jährigen noch in etwa der Anzahl der Personen über 68 Jahre, wird der Anteil der Älteren in den kommenden Jahrzehnten deutlich zunehmen, während die Anzahl von Kindern und Jugendlichen weiter zurückgeht [1,2]. Mit den Veränderungen im Altersaufbau der Bevölkerung steigt der Bedarf an Blut und Blutprodukten [3,4].…”

“…Mit den Veränderungen im Altersaufbau der Bevölkerung steigt der Bedarf an Blut und Blutprodukten [3,4]. Da die Bevölkerung im spendefähigen Alter von derzeit 18 bis 68 Jahren seit 2003 rückläufig ist und weiter abnehmen wird [1,2], stellt sich die Frage, ob und wie die Versorgung der Bevölkerung mit Blut und Blutprodukten in Zukunft gewährleistet werden kann.…”

Blood Product Supply in Germany: The Impact of Apheresis and Pooled Platelet Concentrates

“…This indicates, in accordance with the predicted donor development in Germany in the upcoming years, that the restrictive use in blood products might not be sufficient to balance the decrease in WBDs and the subsequent decrease in the production of RBCCs in the future [12]. Expected demographic changes will lead to an aging population with a decreasing number of donors while an increasing number of cancer cases will increase the demand for blood products, especially PCs [23][24][25]. The shrinking process in the donor population has been predicted to accelerate, in particular after 2015 [23].…”

“…Expected demographic changes will lead to an aging population with a decreasing number of donors while an increasing number of cancer cases will increase the demand for blood products, especially PCs [23][24][25]. The shrinking process in the donor population has been predicted to accelerate, in particular after 2015 [23].…”

Utilisation of Blood Components in Cardiac Surgery: A Single-Centre Retrospective Analysis with Regard to Diagnosis-Related Procedures

“…Additionally, older patients require more blood transfusions [14,18,19] as a result of progress in medical sciences and therapeutic options [17]. Additionally, the demographic ageing of the population in higher developed countries may even reduce the number of younger individuals without illness who have preferentially been recruited as voluntary blood donors [4,12,14,15,20,21]. …”