Demographic Change and Its Public Sector Consequences

Abstract

Demographic Change and Its Public Sector ConsequencesIt is widely believed that projected changes in the age structure of the U.S. population will create serious fi scal pressures at the federal level. Irrespective of any reforms undertaken at the federal level, these demographic trends also will have a direct impact on the way state and local governments operate. A review of recent population projections to 2020 reveals a great deal of heterogeneity in demographic trends at lower levels of government. Population aging will accompany overall population growth in some localities, and shrinkage in others. It also will coincide with a broad range of changes in the proportion of children under 18. Th e authors consider several responses to these demographic developments in the realm of public management: First, they consider major fi scal implications, which may prompt a range of managerial responses pertaining to the scope and mix of public services and the design of public programs. Second, they discuss the eff ects of demographic change on the composition of the state and local government workforce. Finally, the authors revisit the alleged "exogeneity" of demographic forces and suggest new and fruitful areas for future research.

Projecting landscapes of death

“…For example, the "pig in the python" that is the Baby Boom generation composes a significant proportion of the national population. As the Boomers age into older age cohorts, the nation as a whole is likely to experience higher overall mortality rates (Myers and Ryu, 2008;Wolf and Amirkhanyan, 2010). Also, some researchers have predicted that an epidemic of obesity in children may lead to higher future mortality rates when those children reach adulthood, creating the unprecedented situation where a parent's life expectancy is greater than their children's (Connor, 2002).…”

Geographies of Local Government Stress after the Great Recession

“…For example, the elderly and children have higher service needs and can increase local expenditure burdens (Wallace ). This is especially important in rural areas in both Europe and the USA (Giarchi ; Wolf and Amirkhanyan ). Other demographic factors such as poverty, unemployment and racial characteristics have implications for local expenditures and spatial inequality.…”

Provision of Public Services in the Light of Current Global Trends

“…It includes a combination of policies and measures to reduce the vulnerability of the landscape. Depending on the circumstances, it may be a comprehensive strategy adopted at the national level, covering cooperation between sectors, regions and affected populations, or may be more focussed only on one or two sectors or regions (26) . The NAS confi guration and formulation thus indicate, which actors should be included in the implementation.…”

“…Furthemore, contrary to the lower level of governance, the central government to smaller extent faces the lack of information and limited resources. That is why those are mainly centrally set (25) Juhola, Westerhoff (2011) (26) Niang-Diop and Bosch (2004) (27)…”