Demographic Change and Development: Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review

“…We developed a framework that identifies the main sectors needed to create a favorable policy environment to harness the benefits of a demographic dividend. The World Bank identifies four demographic dividend typologies based on demographic characteristics, similar to the demographic transition, and future development potential ( Ahmed et al , 2016 ). Low- and lower-middle-income countries with high fertility are characterized as pre- and early-dividend countries, while upper-middle and high-income countries make the late- and post-dividend typology.…”

“…Among these social improvements, women can be more empowered to make their own decisions in the household and take ownership of their reproductive health. Focusing on fertility management, particularly in pre-dividend countries (countries with TFR ≥ 4), can accelerate a shifting age structure and pave the path to harness greater gains from a demographic dividend ( Ahmed et al , 2016 ; Bloom et al , 1999 ). In East Asia, around one-third of the economic growth between 1965 and 1990 was attributable to a rapid demographic transition triggered by the implementation of family planning programs ( Bloom et al , 1999 ; Bloom et al , 2014 ; Bloom & Canning, 2008 ; Bloom & Finlay, 2009 ; Bloom & Williamson, 1998 ).…”

“…Higher socioeconomic status (SES) is positively associated with declining fertility. As families become smaller, household members have greater resource allocation per capita, which, for children, can be translated into higher educational investments and higher parental time per child ( Ahmed et al , 2016 ; Becker & Murphy, 1988) . There is a vast literature base on the relationship between high socioeconomic status and small family size; evidence comes from both developed and developing economies ( Komura, 2013 ; Majumder & Ram, 2015 ; May & Turbat, 2017 ; NASEM, 2016 ).…”

“…In 2015, the International Labor Organization estimated that 6 out of 100 people living in SSA were without work but available for and seeking employment. Countries should be able to create jobs at a rate that exceeds the rate of population growth in order to achieve full employment ( Ahmed et al , 2016 ).…”

“…Additionally, reports and articles from gray literature sources such as the World Bank, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), and the African Union, were downloaded and reviewed. The World Bank report on "Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change" was the basis for all World Bank research included in this review ( Ahmed & Cruz, 2016 ; Ahmed et al, 2014 ; Ahmed et al, 2016 ; Cruz & Ahmed, 2018 ; Shekar et al , 2016 ).…”