Democracy and Public Opinion Formation: How Illiberal Regimes Suppress Climate Change Concern

Abstract

Climate change concern varies widely across countries. In 2019, 80% of Greeks were at least somewhat worried about climate change, compared to 20% of Egyptians. We argue that variation in climate change concern is partially caused by differences in democracy. Civil liberties protect climate communicators from state repression, censorship, and violence. We offer empirical evidence for the causal effect of democracy on climate change concern using data from 611,909 individuals from 118 countries collected between 2007 and 2019. Exploiting variation in civil liberties across countries and time, we find one unit change in the 7-point civil liberty index to influence climate change concern by 2.3 [95% CI: ±1] percentage points. The effect is much stronger in wealthy countries and less educated cohorts. We also present evidence for our causal pathway using qualitative interviews and by modeling the association between democracy, climate protest, media coverage, and climate concern with simultaneous equations.