Demand Stratification and Prediction of Evacuees after Earthquakes

Abstract

In recent years, frequent natural disasters have brought huge losses to human lives and property, directly affecting social stability and economic development. Since the driving factor of disaster management operations is speed, it will face severe challenges and tremendous pressure when matching the supply of emergency resources with the demand. However, it is difficult to figure out the demands of the affected area until the initial post-disaster assessment is completed and demand is constantly changing. The focus of this paper is to stratify the evacuation needs and predict the number of evacuees and supplies demanded after an earthquake. This research takes a large-scale earthquake as an example to analyze the characteristics of evacuation demand stratification and the factors that affect the demands of evacuees. The forecast model for the number of evacuees is selected and improved. Moreover, combining the influencing factors of materials demand and the number of evacuees, a forecast model of materials demand for evacuees is constructed. The proposed model is used in the case of the Ya’an earthquake in China to estimate the number of evacuees and the daily need for emergency supplies.

Evaluation of Emergency Shelter Service Functions and Optimisation Suggestions—Case Study in the Songyuan City Central Area

“…The traditional effectiveness indicators are based more on the evaluation of the area of refuge and the scope of service of the shelter. There is a higher demand for refuge space from vulnerable groups such as the elderly and the disabled [33], adding a secondary indicator for the area of refuge per capita to provide a more comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of refuge spaces. Previously, accessibility indicators focused more on the connectivity of places of refuge to surrounding public services.…”

Evacuation in Buildings Based on BIM: Taking a Fire in a University Library as an Example

“…Therefore, the accuracy and authenticity of evacuation simulation results are determined by the parameter selection based on the characteristics of human behavior [ 44 ]. The problem of personnel evacuation in university libraries has the following three characteristics [ 45 , 46 , 47 ]: It is difficult to evacuate due to the gathering of people. The library provides a large number of reading seats for the public to study, and each reading room has a large layout area; hence, the density of people is large, and very crowded, especially during exam week, which adds difficulties regarding rapid and safe evacuation.…”

Supply chain network optimization for emergency materials considering demand satisfaction

“…How to make a scientific and accurate prediction of the required emergency materials under public emergencies is the first key link of emergency response (Lin et al, 2023), which is mainly categorized into two types of methods: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative prediction is mainly based on Delphi's method, subjective probability method, combining experts' professional knowledge and subjective experience to estimate the result; common quantitative prediction methods mainly include case-based reasoning method (Platon et al, 2015;Zhang et al, 2022), neural network model (Lin et al, 2022;Yinghui et al, 2022;Zhang & Yang, 2015), gray system (Bo et al, 2015;Geng & Hou, 2021;Zhang et al, 2021;Zhongjun et al, 2019), and so forth, which quantify and predict the research object based on historical data. Focusing on public health emergencies, LIU et al coupled the dynamic demand prediction mechanism of medical resources based on the epidemic spread model with the optimal allocation and transportation mechanism of medical resources based on the multi-stage planning model and put forward a discrete spatio-temporal network model (Liu et al, 2015).…”