Demand Analysis on Engines of Iron and Steel Industry Output Growth

Abstract

The paper is devoted to empirical analysis of some major demand factors that impact on steel industry between 1999 and 2006, based on VECM. The result of cointegration test shows that there is long-term equilibrium relationship among real estate industry, relative downstream industries, steel exports and steel industry. When the sales of real estate industry, relative downstream industries and steel exports increased 1%, will make steel output rise by 51.4%, 34.5% and 13.2% respectively; Meanwhile, Although real estate, relative downstream industries and the steel export have different degree impacts on steel output, they are positive; The result of variance analysis also shows that real estate will play a major role, and steel exports will play a minimum role on steel output fluctuations.