Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change

Abstract

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species or populations at risk from global climate change, but few translate impact assessments to climate change adaptation actions. Furthermore, most climate change adaptation efforts emphasize where to implement management actions, whereas timing remains largely overlooked. The rate of modern climate change introduces urgency in evaluating whether delaying conservation actions compromises their efficacy for reaching important conservation targets. We evaluated the importance of multiple climate change adaptation strategies including timing of actions on preventing extinctions for a threatened climate‐sensitive species, the Eastern Massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus). We parameterized a range‐wide population viability analysis model that related demographic sensitivities to drought events and human‐modified land cover to assess vulnerability to future climate change. Using simulations, we assessed the efficacy and trade‐offs associated with alternative climate adaptation strategies aimed at maximizing the number of future populations including when to initiate conservation actions, duration of management, number of managed populations, and local management effectiveness. Population‐level projections under future climate change scenarios revealed a broad‐scale pattern of range contraction in the southwestern portion of the current range. Along the extinction gradient, we identified demographic strongholds and refugia critical for population persistence under climate change as well as populations at high risk of extinction and candidates for climate change adaptation actions. In the context of future climate change, the timing of conservation actions was crucial; acting earlier maximized chances of achieving conservation targets. Even considering uncertainty in climate change projections, delaying actions was less efficient and introduced undesirable trade‐offs including the need to implement conservation actions for longer or targeting more populations to achieve a similar conservation target. Synthesis and applications. Our findings highlight how acting quickly reduces risk and improves outcomes for a highly vulnerable species under future climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessments require translation of model‐based outputs into tractable information for climate change adaptation planning. Quantifying trade‐offs associated with the multidimensional decision space related to species conservation and recovery planning is a critical step in climate change adaptation.

Treatment of climate change in extinction risk assessments and recovery plans for threatened species

“…These challenges, though daunting, should not result in inaction. Several strategies can be applied by practitioners, including adaptive management informed by continuous monitoring to assess the effectiveness of actions and responses of species to climate change, and simulation modeling that accounts for various sources of uncertainty while evaluating alternative actions aimed at climate‐vulnerable species (Naujokaitis‐Lewis, Pomara, & Zuckerberg, 2018; Stein et al, 2013).…”

Sustainable Agriculture: Nutritional Benefits of Wheat–Soybean and Maize–Sunflower Associations for Hibernation and Reproduction of Endangered Common Hamsters

“…Indeed, once knowledge on an endangered species is acquired, it can take years for measures to be implemented through policymaking, if implemented at all [63]. However, species facing risks of extinction often require urgent measures to be taken [64,65]. Collaboration and communication with all stakeholders from the initiation of research programs thus offer interesting avenues to implement science-based solutions more quickly.…”

Reintroduction of fishes in Canada: a review of research progress for SARA-listed species

“…Compounding the contemporary impacts of introduced species, Westslope Cutthroat Trout are expected to experience greater pressure from introduced species with climate change (Roberts et al 2017;Muhlfeld et al 2014Muhlfeld et al , 2017. For example, Rainbow Trout has a higher thermal tolerance than Westslope Cutthroat Trout and a wider thermal tolerance range that overlaps the Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Bear et al 2007), which has led to increased hybridization over time, even at cold-water sites (Muhlfeld et al 2014(Muhlfeld et al , 2017. Similarly, Brook Trout tend to displace Westslope Cutthroat Trout because of a higher temperature tolerance and earlier age of maturity (COSEWIC 2016b).…”