Delay-adjusted age- and sex-specific case fatality rates for COVID-19 in South Korea: Evolution in the estimated risk of mortality throughout the epidemic

Newall, Anthony T.; Leong, Russell; Nazareno, Allen L.; Muscatello, David; Wood, Jenny; Kim, W.J.

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1478

Cited by 14 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…1 Several countries have implemented a strategy of massive screening, aiming at identifying positives 10 .Testing capacity, which is associated with the availability of resources and manpower, is the single most important factor that can tremendously affect the CFR. 13 The lack of availability of widespread testing leads to an ascertainment bias toward severe cases. 13 A more reliable method of estimating the magnitude of the outbreak would be an assessment of the infection fatality rate (IFR).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…13 The lack of availability of widespread testing leads to an ascertainment bias toward severe cases. 13 A more reliable method of estimating the magnitude of the outbreak would be an assessment of the infection fatality rate (IFR). 13,14 Underestimation of death accounts can lead to erroneously low CFR.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…13 A more reliable method of estimating the magnitude of the outbreak would be an assessment of the infection fatality rate (IFR). 13,14 Underestimation of death accounts can lead to erroneously low CFR. This could be due to…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Covid-19 High Attack Rate Can Lead to High Case Fatality Rate

Raham¹

2021

Preprint

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Background: During the current Covid-19 pandemic case fatality rate (CFR) estimates were subjected to a lot of debates regarding the accuracy of its estimations, predictions, and the reason of across countries variances. In this context, we conduct this study to see the relationship between attack rate (AR) and CFR. The study hypothesis is based on two: 1- evidence suggests that the mortality rate (MR) has a positive influence on case fatality ratio (CFR), 2- and increase number of Covid-19 cases leads to increased mortality rate (MR). Material and methods: Thirty countries and territories were chosen. Inclusion criterion was > 500 Covid-19 reported cases per 10,000 population inhabitants. Data on covid-19 cases and deaths was selected as it was on March 10, 2021. Statistical methods used are descriptive and one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S), the one-way ANOVA, Levene, least significant different (LSD), and matched paired-samples T-tests. Results: ANOVA test showed a significant difference at P<0.01 among all studied groups concerning AR and CFR mean values. Group of countries with MR ≥ 15 death / 104 inhabitants recorded the highest level of crude mean CFR and AR values, and recorded the highest gap with leftover groups, especially with countries reported MR of <10 death/ 104 inhabitants. There were independence 95% confidence intervals of mean CFR and AR values between countries with ≥ 15 death / 104 MR and countries with MR of <10 death /104. There was a significant difference between countries with MR ≥ 15 death / 104 inhabitants and countries with MR of <10 death / 10 4 inhabitants groups through least significant difference (LSD) test for CFR%( 0.042 p-values) and Games Howell (GH) test for AR/104 (p-value 0.000). Conclusions: CFR has a positive significant association with AR.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Covid-19 High Attack Rate Can Lead to High Case Fatality Rate

Raham¹

2021

Preprint

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“…To calculate the adjustment factor, u a , incidence data and the distribution of time from disease onset to death were used. Specifically, we considered the distribution of the time from onset to death, F ( s ), where F ( s ) was the density of a gamma distribution with a mean T (11.5 days) and a standard deviation ( v 2 ) of 6.6 days [ 4 , 11 , 20 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In South Korea, however, the percentage of COVID-19 positive tests has been reported to be relatively low (1.4%) and ranked the eleventh lowest positivity rate worldwide, which reflects the proactive implementation of widespread testing for COVID-19 and contact tracing for positive cases [ 6 , 10 ]. Furthermore, widespread testing undertaken by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) has been considered to have effectively identified asymptomatic individuals, and case ascertainment in South Korea has been considered more complete than in many other settings, thus reducing ascertainment bias toward severe cases [ 10 , 11 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delay-Adjusted Age-Specific COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates in a High Testing Setting: South Korea, February 2020 to February 2021

Shim

2021

IJERPH

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In South Korea, a country with a high coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) testing rate, a total of 87,324 COVID-19 cases, including 1562 deaths, have been recorded as of 23 February 2021. This study assessed the delay-adjusted COVID-19 case fatality risk (CFR), including data from the second and third waves. A statistical method was applied to the data from 20 February 2021 through 23 February 2021 to minimize bias in the crude CFR, accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death. The resulting overall delay-adjusted CFR was 1.97% (95% credible interval: 1.94–2.00%). The delay-adjusted CFR was highest among adults aged ≥80 years and 70–79 years (22.88% and 7.09%, respectively). The cumulative incidence rate was highest among individuals aged ≥80 years and 60–69 years. The cumulative mortality rate was highest among individuals aged ≥80 years and 70–79 years (47 and 12 per million, respectively). In South Korea, older adults are being disproportionately affected by COVID-19 with a high death rate, although the incidence rate among younger individuals is relatively high. Interventions to prevent COVID-19 should target older adults to minimize the number of deaths.

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Computing the Death Rate of COVID-19

Pai

Zhang

2021

Computer Science Protecting Human Society Against Epidemics

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Delay-adjusted age- and sex-specific case fatality rates for COVID-19 in South Korea: Evolution in the estimated risk of mortality throughout the epidemic

Cited by 14 publications

References 20 publications

Covid-19 High Attack Rate Can Lead to High Case Fatality Rate

Covid-19 High Attack Rate Can Lead to High Case Fatality Rate

Delay-Adjusted Age-Specific COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates in a High Testing Setting: South Korea, February 2020 to February 2021

Computing the Death Rate of COVID-19

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