Degradation and life prediction of mechanical equipment based on multivariate stochastic process

Abstract

IntroductionAccurately predicting the remaining mechanical equipment is of great significance for ensuring the safe operation of the equipment and improving economic efficiency.MethodsTo accurately assess the mechanical equipment degradation, predict its remaining useful life, and ensure efficient, stable, and safe operation, a degradation and life prediction model for mechanical equipment based on multivariate stochastic processes is studied. The study innovatively predicts the remaining life of mechanical equipment using multivariate stochastic processes, and facilitates the correlation analysis between performance indicators based on the characteristics of Copula functions.Results and discussionThe results showed that the Root Mean Squared Error value of the prediction results based on the trivariate Wiener process was 2.58, which decreased by 46.91% and 35.82% compared with the univariate and bivariate Wiener processes, respectively. The prediction value based on the trivariate gamma process was 3.49, which decreased by 44.95% and 40.54% compared with the univariate and bivariate gamma processes, respectively. In conclusion, the degradation and life prediction model with multivariate stochastic processes can effectively assess the mechanical equipment degradation and predict its remaining useful life. This provides an important reference for the maintenance and management of mechanical equipment, improving equipment efficiency and extend its service life.