Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards

Abstract

The impact of climate change on biodiversity is often analyzed under a stable evolutionary lens, thereby overlooking the adaptive potential of species. Evolutionary rescue, a process where adaptive genetic variation spreads across populations in response to changing climates, can provide an alternative outlook. Here, we combine genomic data, niche modeling, and landscape ecology to predict range shifts and evaluate the potential for evolutionary rescue for a widely distributed Amazonian whiptail lizard (Kentropyx calcarata). Our results show a high potential for evolutionary rescue that could buffer extinction risk if forest cover is maintained and climate change is not extreme. However, with extreme climate change, significant range loss in central and southern Amazonia will occur regardless of deforestation levels. This underlines the importance of both protecting the Amazonian rainforest from further deforestation and mitigating climate change to facilitate evolutionary rescue and prevent substantial biodiversity loss.