Definition, Validation and Comparison of Two Population Models for Austria

Abstract

In this work we present two structurally different mathematical models for the prognostic simulation of Austria's population: A time-continuous, macroscopic system dynamics approach and a time-discrete, microscopic agent-based approach. Both models were developed as case studies of a series of population concepts in order to support models for decision-support in Austria's health care system. In the present work we want to focus on the definition, the parametrisation as well as especially the validation process of both population-models. The latter was of special interest as it included a cross-model validation with Statistics Austria's own prognostic model SIKURS.

Mean-Field Approximation of a Microscopic Population Model for Austria

“…This type of population modelling is advantageous due to its flexibility with respect to model-extensions and hence plays an important role in the Comet founded healthcare project DEXHELPP. In the course of this project an agent based population model for Austria was developed and implemented [5] in order to create a solid foundation for generating decision-support models for Austria's health care system.…”