Objective
Although the average depressed patient benefits moderately from cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) or pharmacotherapy, some experience divergent outcomes. We tested frequencies, predictors, and moderators of negative (deterioration, extreme non-response) and unusually-positive (superior improvement, superior response) symptomatic outcomes.
Method
Sixteen randomized clinical trials comparing CBT versus pharmacotherapy for unipolar depression provided individual patients’ (N=1700) Hamilton Rating Scale of Depression (HAM-D) and/or Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) scores pre- and post-treatment. We tested demographic and clinical predictors and treatment moderators of any deterioration (increases ≥1 HAM-D or BDI points), reliable deterioration (increases ≥8 HAM-D or ≥9 BDI points), extreme non-response (post-treatment HAM-D ≥21 or BDI ≥31), superior improvement (HAM-D or BDI decreases ≥95%), and superior response (post-treatment HAM-D or BDI =0) using multilevel models.
Results
About 5–7% of patients showed any deterioration, 1% reliable deterioration, 4–5% extreme non-response, 6–10% superior improvement, and 4–5% superior response on the HAM-D or BDI. Superior improvement on the HAM-D (OR=1.67) only and attrition (OR=1.67) were more frequent in pharmacotherapy versus CBT. Patients with deterioration and superior response had lower, whereas patients with extreme non-response and superior improvement had higher, symptoms pre-treatment.
Conclusions
Deterioration and extreme non-response (a) occur infrequently in randomized clinical trials comparing CBT versus pharmacotherapy for depression, and (b) mirror superior improvement and superior response in distributions of symptom changes and end-states, respectively. Pre-treatment symptom levels help forecast negative and unusually-positive outcomes but do not guide selection of CBT versus pharmacotherapy. Pharmacotherapy may produce clinician-rated superior improvement and attrition more frequently than does CBT.