Abstract:Flood risk management is an essential responsibility of state governments and local councils to ensure the protection of people residing on floodplains. Globally, floodplains are under increasing pressure from growing populations. Typically, the engineering‐type solutions that are used to predict local flood magnitude and frequency based on limited gauging data are inadequate, especially in settings which experience high hydrological variability. This study highlights the importance of incorporating geomorphol… Show more
“…Preliminary alignment of broadly synchronous dates, therefore, points to some coincidences has been referred to as Spill-out Zones (SOZ) (Croke et al, 2016a). These areas typically occur downstream of enlarged macrochannel systems and coincide with a notable reduction in channel capacity.…”
Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning
confidence: 98%
“…Macrochannels, or compound channel-in-channels, have been described in a range of hydrologically variable settings globally (Woodyer, 1968;Graf, 1988;Gupta et al, 1995Gupta et al, , 1999Van Niekerk et al, 1995) and are a common channel form in SEQ (Croke et al, 2013). Macrochannels are characterized by a small inner channel and associated benches set within a much larger channel that operates as a conduit for high magnitude floods (Croke et al, 2016a). They have been shown to have large channel capacities, with bank top capacities approaching a 50-year annual recurrence interval (ARI), and are laterally stable because of adjacent, highly resistant, clay-rich Pleistocene alluvium.…”
Section: Figurementioning
confidence: 99%
“…Like previous studies (e.g., Kale et al, 2010;Zhang et al, 2012, Huang et al, 2013Wasson et al, 2013), there now seems to be general consensus that SWD can move beyond the bedrock gorge, where well-preserved flood units are found in flow expansive and backwater settings, serving as a useful addition to sample settings. Importantly, the macrochannel settings of SEQ fulfil the stable boundary conditions required to provide robust discharge estimates because they have experienced minimal channel adjustments over the past 200 years (Fryirs et al, 2015;Thompson et al, 2016) and even over the longer timescale of the Holocene (Croke et al, 2016a(Croke et al, , 2016bDaley et al, 2016). In a more detailed assessment of how changes in withinchannel sedimentation rates may affect predicted palaeoflood discharges, Lam et al (2017) ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT…”
Section: Recognised Challenges In the Application Of Swd To Flood Estmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Australia also experienced numerous floods equalling, or exceeding, the largest floods on record, including the 2011 and 2013 floods across southeast Queensland (SEQ) (Croke et al, 2016a(Croke et al, , 2016b. The 2011 flood was the most expensive natural disaster in Australia and cost the economy ~A$30 billion (Australian Government, 2015).…”
The application of palaeoflood hydrology in Australia has been limited since its initial introduction more than 30 years ago. This study adopts a regional, field-based approach to sampling slackwater deposits in a subtropical setting in southeast Queensland beyond the traditional arid setting. We explore the potential and challenges of using sites outside the traditional physiographical setting of bedrock gorges. Over 30 flood units were identified across different physiographical settings using a range of criteria. Evidence of charcoal-rich layers and palaeosol development assisted in the identification and separation of distinct flood units. The OSL-dated flood units are relatively young with two-thirds of the samples being <1000 years old. The elevation of all flood units have resulted in estimated minimum discharges greater than the 1% annual exceedance probability. Although these are in the same order of gauged flood magnitudes, >80% of them classified as 'extreme event'. This study opens up the renewed possibility of applying palaeoflood hydrology to more populated parts of Australia where the need for improved estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is now urgent in light of several extreme flood events. Preliminary contributions to improve the understanding between high magnitude floods and regional climatic drivers are also discussed. Recognised regional extreme floods generally coincide with La Niña and negative IPO phases, while tropical cyclones appear to be a key weather system in generating such large floods.
“…Preliminary alignment of broadly synchronous dates, therefore, points to some coincidences has been referred to as Spill-out Zones (SOZ) (Croke et al, 2016a). These areas typically occur downstream of enlarged macrochannel systems and coincide with a notable reduction in channel capacity.…”
Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning
confidence: 98%
“…Macrochannels, or compound channel-in-channels, have been described in a range of hydrologically variable settings globally (Woodyer, 1968;Graf, 1988;Gupta et al, 1995Gupta et al, , 1999Van Niekerk et al, 1995) and are a common channel form in SEQ (Croke et al, 2013). Macrochannels are characterized by a small inner channel and associated benches set within a much larger channel that operates as a conduit for high magnitude floods (Croke et al, 2016a). They have been shown to have large channel capacities, with bank top capacities approaching a 50-year annual recurrence interval (ARI), and are laterally stable because of adjacent, highly resistant, clay-rich Pleistocene alluvium.…”
Section: Figurementioning
confidence: 99%
“…Like previous studies (e.g., Kale et al, 2010;Zhang et al, 2012, Huang et al, 2013Wasson et al, 2013), there now seems to be general consensus that SWD can move beyond the bedrock gorge, where well-preserved flood units are found in flow expansive and backwater settings, serving as a useful addition to sample settings. Importantly, the macrochannel settings of SEQ fulfil the stable boundary conditions required to provide robust discharge estimates because they have experienced minimal channel adjustments over the past 200 years (Fryirs et al, 2015;Thompson et al, 2016) and even over the longer timescale of the Holocene (Croke et al, 2016a(Croke et al, , 2016bDaley et al, 2016). In a more detailed assessment of how changes in withinchannel sedimentation rates may affect predicted palaeoflood discharges, Lam et al (2017) ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT…”
Section: Recognised Challenges In the Application Of Swd To Flood Estmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Australia also experienced numerous floods equalling, or exceeding, the largest floods on record, including the 2011 and 2013 floods across southeast Queensland (SEQ) (Croke et al, 2016a(Croke et al, , 2016b. The 2011 flood was the most expensive natural disaster in Australia and cost the economy ~A$30 billion (Australian Government, 2015).…”
The application of palaeoflood hydrology in Australia has been limited since its initial introduction more than 30 years ago. This study adopts a regional, field-based approach to sampling slackwater deposits in a subtropical setting in southeast Queensland beyond the traditional arid setting. We explore the potential and challenges of using sites outside the traditional physiographical setting of bedrock gorges. Over 30 flood units were identified across different physiographical settings using a range of criteria. Evidence of charcoal-rich layers and palaeosol development assisted in the identification and separation of distinct flood units. The OSL-dated flood units are relatively young with two-thirds of the samples being <1000 years old. The elevation of all flood units have resulted in estimated minimum discharges greater than the 1% annual exceedance probability. Although these are in the same order of gauged flood magnitudes, >80% of them classified as 'extreme event'. This study opens up the renewed possibility of applying palaeoflood hydrology to more populated parts of Australia where the need for improved estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is now urgent in light of several extreme flood events. Preliminary contributions to improve the understanding between high magnitude floods and regional climatic drivers are also discussed. Recognised regional extreme floods generally coincide with La Niña and negative IPO phases, while tropical cyclones appear to be a key weather system in generating such large floods.
“…This extreme rain event was followed by ex-tropical Cyclone Oswald in 2013 which produced another major flooding event in SEQ. The geomorphic, hydrological and landscape impacts and responses have now been widely researched in the Lockyer Valley basin (Croke et al 2016a), a key tributary of the Brisbane River upstream of Brisbane city.…”
The use of flood frequency analysis (FFA) to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of the design flood is severely limited by short gauging records. This thesis seeks to improve our understanding of the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events, with an aim to advance flood risk management and policy planning through the integration of spatial and temporal extreme flood information. This research undertakes a field-work based regional study, collecting slackwater deposits (SWDs) as extreme flood archives and incorporates these as palaeoflood record of extreme flood events for SouthEast Queensland (SEQ).To do so, this study must first define an extreme flood, which is undertaken through the derivation of an Australian Envelope Curve (AEC). The resultant approach represents a significantly improved method to produce an AEC which comprises data from ~2700 gauges in SEQ.An alternative approach to flood frequency is also investigated in the form of a Probabilistic Regional Envelope Curve (PREC) approach which integrates additional spatial information, from homogenous regions. Results indicate that for gauges with either too few, or too many, extreme flood events, the PREC method shows significant changes to the estimated discharges of low % Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood quantiles. A decision making process is provided to ascertain when this method is preferable for FFA.This thesis also examines historical and palaeoflood records that can provide significant upper-tail flood information, often missing from short gauging records. Palaeoflood studies and records have been spatially limited to bedrock settings, in climatic regions outside the subtropical environs of SouthEast Queensland. Reliable historical records are also temporally limited to the last ~200 years of European settlement. This study produced results on the timing and magnitude of past floods from over 30 SWDs across five catchments in the region, spanning a variety of depositional settings, contributing catchment areas, and discharge magnitude. Sensitivity analyses included tests for stable boundary conditions essential for reliable discharge reconstruction. Results show that cross sectional changes due to either aggradation or incision result in resultant changes in discharge that are within the uncertainty range for most of the concerned % AEP flood quantiles.Additional temporal extreme flood information derived from both historical and palaeoflood records are also integrated with gauge records for FFA. This approach reveals that a significant reduction in uncertainty associated with the estimated discharge of a flood quantile can be achieved.Importantly, the uncertainty associated with the 1% AEP flood discharge is reduced by 50-74%. iii
The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multidecadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near-term (next 50 years) and longer-term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature-based management approaches, and if land-use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically-grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio-geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes.
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