Defining Extreme Events: A Cross‐Disciplinary Review

McPhillips, Lauren; Chang, Heejun; Chester, Mikhail; Depietri, Yaella; Friedman, Erin; Grimm, Nancy B.; Kominoski, John S.; McPhearson, Timon; Méndez‐Lázaro, Pablo; Rosi‐Marshall, Emma J.; Shiva, Javad Shafiei

doi:10.1002/2017ef000686

Cited by 217 publications

(112 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…Hence, similar to recent efforts, we resonate the importance of the study of “heat wave definition impact” on extreme events studies (Xu et al, ). This will become more significant in dealing with the public perception of heat waves and consequently will alter the resilience of a community to the future harmful heat waves (Chen et al, ; Kent et al, ; Mcphillips et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Localized Changes in Heat Wave Properties Across the United States

2019

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Heat waves are an important type of extreme climate event and directly result in more than 130 deaths per year across the United States. Heat waves have been described by several attributes and combinations which constitute various event typologies. Attributes of heat waves from 10 cities are analyzed over the period 1950–2016 to understand how these attributes determine variability in local heat waves and how climate change affects heat waves across the United States. This study uses eight definitions to differentiate heat waves and tests for temporal trends in key properties of heat waves over the period 1950–2016. At least five harmful attributes of heat waves have increased simultaneously for Dallas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, and Portland.Miami showed the greatest change in heat wave season length, frequency, and timing over the study period. Surprisingly, the greatest mean heat wave intensities above daily thresholds were for Bismarck, ND (+8.2 °C) and Syracuse, NY (+6.5 °C). Similar results across Baltimore, MD, Colorado Springs, CO, Dallas, TX, Des Moines, IA, Miami, FL, New York, NY, Phoenix, AZ, and Portland, OR, are presented to clarify the many quantitative differences in heat wave attributes and variance in quantification approaches across climates. This work explores the nexus of quantitative description and social construction of heat waves through the lens of the various regional metrics to describe heat waves. Ultimately, this assessment will guide the development of various strategies to help communities understand and prepare for heat resilience based on local heat wave components.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Localized Changes in Heat Wave Properties Across the United States

2019

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“…This is an example of compound events in which two consecutive or cascading events lead to extreme impacts (AghaKouchak et al 2018). Though there is considerable variability in the ways to define/ discuss extreme events across disciplines (McPhillips et al 2018), in general, compound events (or compound hazards) correspond to combinations of two or more dependent drivers that yield extreme impacts and pose significant societal or environmental risk (Leonard et al 2014, Zscheischler andSeneviratne 2017). The compounding impacts can be grouped into the following categories: (i) two or more extreme events occurring simultaneously or successively (the latter is known as cascading event), (ii) combinations of extreme events with underlying conditions that amplify the impact of the events, (iii) combinations of events that are not themselves extremes but lead to an extreme event or impact when combined (IPCC 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall

Moftakhari

AghaKouchak

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Floods and debris flows pose a significant threat, especially when extreme rain falls over burned areas. This is an example of a compound event in which two concurrent or consecutive events lead to extreme societal impacts. Compound and cascading hazards are becoming increasingly important and have notable impacts on threatened communities across the world. Wildfire followed by an intense precipitation event can result in a large flood under which the combined impacts of hazard drivers are much more intense than those from individual drivers. Here, we first quantify the change in exposure of natural gas infrastructure to individual hazards, wildfire and floods in the future relative to past. We, then quantify the compound hazards as coincidence likelihood of intense rain over burned areas and analyze the spatial patterns across the State of California, USA. Our results show that not only the exposure of natural gas infrastructure to individual hazards would be higher, the likelihood of compound hazards is expected to increase substantially in a warming climate.

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“…Recognizing that the occurrence of a winter weather whiplash event may also require a specific set of conditions irrespective of historical thresholds (McPhillips et al, ), we also developed a seventh criterion for each event type based on our best understanding of scientific literature describing the drivers and antecedent conditions that would have the potential to produce an extreme impact. Thus, we defined a snow‐on‐leaf event as occurring when daily minimum temperature was below 0 °C and at least 10 mm of SWE falls during the growing season (PI ≥0.5), where the 10‐mm threshold is based on the minimum amount of snowfall that must occur to cause a societal impact within the northeastern United States (Squires et al, ).…”

Section: Developing Quantitative Metrics Of Winter Weather Whiplash Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Winter Weather Whiplash: Impacts of Meteorological Events Misaligned With Natural and Human Systems in Seasonally Snow‐Covered Regions

et al. 2019

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Weather whiplash" is a colloquial phrase for describing an extreme event that includes shifts between two opposing weather conditions. Prior media coverage and research on these types of extremes have largely ignored winter weather events. However, rapid swings in winter weather can result in crossing from frozen to unfrozen conditions, or vice versa; thus, the potential impact of these types of events on coupled human and natural systems may be large. Given rapidly changing winter conditions in seasonally snow-covered regions, there is a pressing need for a deeper understanding of such events and the extent of their impacts to minimize their risks. Here we introduce the concept of winter weather whiplash, defined as a class of extreme event in which a collision of unexpected conditions produces a forceful, rapid, back-and-forth change in winter weather that induces an outsized impact on coupled human and natural systems. Using a series of case studies, we demonstrate that the effects of winter weather whiplash events depend on the natural and human context in which they occur, and discuss how these events may result in the restructuring of social and ecological systems. We use the long-term hydrometeorological record at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA to demonstrate quantitative methods for delineating winter weather whiplash events and their biophysical impacts. Ultimately, we argue that robust conceptual and quantitative frameworks for understanding winter weather whiplash events will contribute to the ways in which we mitigate and adapt to winter climate change in vulnerable regions. Plain Language SummaryWeather whiplash is a term used by researchers and the media to describe wild and rapid shifts in weather conditions. Here we investigate "winter weather whiplash" events, which are characterized by weather conditions swinging from frozen to unfrozen (or vice versa). These events have important consequences for ecosystems and communities, especially when they occur at unusual times of the year. Impacts of these events include tree damage, flooding, electrical outages, and crop damage. We use a series of case studies to explore the impacts of these events and analyze a long-term data set to demonstrate how they might be detected from weather data. Understanding winter weather whiplash events will help decision makers and planners adapt and mitigate these events in the future.

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Defining Extreme Events: A Cross‐Disciplinary Review

Cited by 217 publications

References 94 publications

Localized Changes in Heat Wave Properties Across the United States

Localized Changes in Heat Wave Properties Across the United States

Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall

Winter Weather Whiplash: Impacts of Meteorological Events Misaligned With Natural and Human Systems in Seasonally Snow‐Covered Regions

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