Background: Electrocardiographic (ECG) Heart Age conveying cardiovascular risk has been estimated by both Bayesian and artificial intelligence approaches. We hypothesized that explainable measures from the 10-second 12-lead ECG could successfully predict Bayesian ECG Heart Age.
Methods: Advanced analysis was performed on ECGs from healthy subjects and patients with cardiovascular risk or proven heart disease. Regression models were used to predict a Bayesian 5-minute ECG Heart Age from the standard resting 10-second 12-lead ECG. The difference between 10-second ECG Heart Age and chronological age was compared.
Results: In total, 2,771 subjects were included (n=1682 healthy volunteers, n=305 with cardiovascular risk factors, n=784 with cardiovascular disease). Overall, 10-second Heart Age showed strong agreement with the 5-minute Heart Age (R2=0.94, p<0.001, mean±SD bias 0.0±5.1 years). The difference between 10-second ECG Heart Age and chronological age was 0.0±5.7 years in healthy individuals, 7.4±7.3 years in subjects with cardiovascular risk factors (p<0.001), and 14.3±9.2 years for patients with cardiovascular disease (p<0.001).
Conclusions: ECG Heart Age can be accurately estimated from a 10-second 12-lead ECG in a transparent and explainable fashion based on known ECG measures, without artificial intelligence techniques. The difference between ECG Heart Age and chronological age increases markedly with cardiovascular risk and disease.