Deep neural network-estimated age using optical coherence tomography predicts mortality

Abstract

The concept of biological age has emerged as a measurement that reflects physiological and functional decline with ageing. Here we aimed to develop a deep neural network (DNN) model that predicts biological age from optical coherence tomography (OCT). A total of 84,753 high-quality OCT images from 53,159 individuals in the UK Biobank were included, among which 12,631 3D-OCT images from 8,541 participants without any reported medical conditions at baseline were used to develop an age prediction model. For the remaining 44,618 participants, OCT age gap, the difference between the OCT-predicted age and chronological age, was calculated for each participant. Cox regression models assessed the association between OCT age gap and mortality. The DNN model predicted age with a mean absolute error of 3.27 years and showed a strong correlation of 0.85 with chronological age. After a median follow-up of 11.0 years (IQR 10.9–11.1 years), 2,429 deaths (5.44%) were recorded. For each 5-year increase in OCT age gap, there was an 8% increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.08, CI:1.02–1.13, P = 0.004). Compared with an OCT age gap within ± 4 years, OCT age gap less than minus 4 years was associated with a 16% decreased mortality risk (HR = 0.84, CI: 0.75–0.94, P = 0.002) and OCT age gap more than 4 years showed an 18% increased risk of death incidence (HR = 1.18, CI: 1.02–1.37, P = 0.026). OCT imaging could serve as an ageing biomarker to predict biological age with high accuracy and the OCT age gap, defined as the difference between the OCT-predicted age and chronological age, can be used as a marker of the risk of mortality.