Deep Learning Analysis of Impact of Arctic Sea Extent Over Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract

Increasing global warming is creating lot of dynamics in polar sea ice extent and concentration. Many works have explored the impact of Arctic sea ice extent over temperature, rainfall in global context. In India specific context, analyzing the impact of Arctic sea ice over Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is critical as the study is important for understanding the monsoon behaviour, aquatic life conditions and effect of storms over Indian coast. This work proposes a novel optimized multivariate long short term memory model for predicting the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature at a fine grained level using the Arctic sea ice extent data. The hyperparameters for optimizing the deep learning model were identified and optimized using Grass hopper swarm optimization algorithm. The model training was itself optimized using hinge loss error minimization. The prediction error is measured in term of root mean square and it was atleast 32% lower in proposed solution compared to artificial neural network and 18% lower compared to convolutional neural network techniques.