Decreasing wheat yield stability on the North China Plain: Relative contributions from climate change in mean and variability

Liu, Weihang; Ye, Tao; Shi, Peijun

doi:10.1002/joc.6882

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 55 publications

(84 reference statements)

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“…Given that it is one of the primary wheat cropping regions in China, wheat productivity in the North China Plain (NCP) has been declining due to increased extreme weather events (e.g., drought stress and temperature stress) driven by climate change, especially in the southern part [4]. These extreme weather events cause large wheat yield variability in the NCP [5]. With climate change, more cropping regions like NCP will face a greater risk of abiotic stress due to higher frequencies and greater magnitudes of extreme temperature and rainfall events [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Over-Optimistic Projected Future Wheat Yield Potential in the North China Plain: The Role of Future Climate Extremes

et al. 2022

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Global warming and altered precipitation patterns pose a serious threat to crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). Quantifying the frequency of adverse climate events (e.g., frost, heat and drought) under future climates and assessing how those climatic extreme events would affect yield are important to effectively inform and make science-based adaptation options for agriculture in a changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during sensitive phenological stages at four representative sites in the NCP using the APSIM-wheat model. climate data included historical and future climates, the latter being informed by projections from 22 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for the period 2031–2060 (2050s). Our results show that current projections of future wheat yield potential in the North China Plain may be overestimated; after more accurately accounting for the effects of frost and heat stress in the model, yield projections for 2031-60 decreased from 31% to 9%. Clustering of common drought-stress seasonal patterns into key groups revealed that moderate drought stress environments are likely to be alleviated in the future, although the frequency of severe drought-stress environments would remain similar (25%) to that occurring under the current climate. We highlight the importance of mechanistically accounting for temperature stress on crop physiology, enabling more robust projections of crop yields under future the burgeoning climate crisis.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Over-Optimistic Projected Future Wheat Yield Potential in the North China Plain: The Role of Future Climate Extremes

et al. 2022

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“…These models use climate change scenarios developed from multiple GCMs that account for various climatic considerations. Several studies have used the DSSAT CERES-Wheat model to forecast the effect of changing climate on crop growth and production under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios [32,33]. It is a CSM that is part of the DSSAT [34,35], which helps to investigate the effects of soil, management of the field (such as fertilizer, irrigation, cultivar, date of planting, and planting density), and climate variability on plant development and yield [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have used the DSSAT CERES-Wheat model to forecast the effect of changing climate on crop growth and production under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios [32,33]. It is a CSM that is part of the DSSAT [34,35], which helps to investigate the effects of soil, management of the field (such as fertilizer, irrigation, cultivar, date of planting, and planting density), and climate variability on plant development and yield [32]. The model considers climate, soil, genetic factors, and management options when predicting wheat growth, water balance, nitrogen balance, aboveground biomass, and grain yield [36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warming Climate and Elevated CO2 Will Enhance Future Winter Wheat Yields in North China Region

et al. 2022

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The projected climate change substantially impacts agricultural productivity and global food security. The cropping system models (CSM) can help estimate the effects of the changing climate on current and future crop production. The current study evaluated the impact of a projected climate change under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) on the grain yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain by adopting the CSM-DSSAT CERES-Wheat model. The model was calibrated and evaluated using observed data of winter wheat experiments from 2015 to 2017 in which nitrogen fertigation was applied to various growth stages of winter wheat. Under the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long-term (2081–2100) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the future climate projections were based on five global climate models (GCMs) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The GCMs projected an increase in grain yield with increasing temperature and precipitation in the near-term, mid-term, and long-term projections. In the mid-term, 13% more winter wheat grain yield is predicted under 1.3 °C, and a 33 mm increase in temperature and precipitation, respectively, compared with the baseline period (1995–2014). The increasing CO2 concentration trends projected an increase in average grain yield from 4 to 6%, 4 to 14%, and 2 to 34% in the near-term, mid-term, and long-term projections, respectively, compared to the baseline. The adaptive strategies were also analyzed, including three irrigation levels (200, 260, and 320 mm), three nitrogen fertilizer rates (275, 330, and 385 kg ha−1), and four sowing times (September 13, September 23, October 3, and October 13). An adaptive strategy experiments indicated that sowing winter wheat on October 3 (traditional planting time) and applying 275 kg ha−1 nitrogen fertilizer and 260 mm irrigation water could positively affect the grain yield in the North China Plain. These findings are beneficial in decision making to adopt and implement the best management practices to mitigate future climate change impacts on wheat grain yields.

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“…In the past half-century, the yield of most major crops in the world has increased significantly, mainly due to irrigation, chemical input, and the extensive use of modern crop varieties [8]. However, an increasing number of studies have shown that there are two significant differences between the positive and negative effects of climate warming on crop growth and yield [9][10][11][12][13], and the results depend on the study areas, crops, and methods. In the past 100 years, the trend of temperature increase in China has been higher than the global average [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Extreme Temperature in Mainland China under Climate Change

Yan

Jun

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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Some studies have suggested that variations in the seasonal cycle of temperature and season onset could affect the efficiency in the use of radiation by plants, which would then affect yield. However, the study of the temporal variation in extreme climatic variables is not sufficient in China. Using seasonal trend analysis (STA), this article evaluates the distribution of extreme temperature seasonality trends in mainland China, describes the trends in the seasonal cycle, and detects changes in extreme temperature characterized by the number of hot days (HD) and frost days (FD), the frequency of warm days (TX90p), cold days (TX10p), warm nights (TN90p), and cold nights (TN10p). The results show a statistically significant positive trend in the annual average amplitudes of extreme temperatures. The amplitude and phase of the annual cycle experience less variation than that of the annual average amplitude for extreme temperatures. The phase of the annual cycle in maximum temperature mainly shows a significant negative trend, accounting for approximately 30% of the total area of China, which is distributed across the regions except for northeast and southwest. The amplitude of the annual cycle indicates that the minimum temperature underwent slightly greater variation than the maximum temperature, and its distribution has a spatial characteristic that is almost bounded by the 400 mm isohyet, increasing in the northwest and decreasing in the southeast. In terms of the extreme air temperature indices, HD, TX90p, and TN90p show an increasing trend, FD, TX10p, and TN10p show a decreasing trend. They are statistically significant (p < 0.05). This number of days also suggests that temperature has increased over mainland China in the past 42 years.

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Decreasing wheat yield stability on the North China Plain: Relative contributions from climate change in mean and variability

Cited by 13 publications

References 55 publications

Over-Optimistic Projected Future Wheat Yield Potential in the North China Plain: The Role of Future Climate Extremes

Over-Optimistic Projected Future Wheat Yield Potential in the North China Plain: The Role of Future Climate Extremes

Warming Climate and Elevated CO2 Will Enhance Future Winter Wheat Yields in North China Region

Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Extreme Temperature in Mainland China under Climate Change

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