Deconstructing the Ferguson effect: a multilevel mediation analysis of public scrutiny, de-policing, and crime

Capellan, Joel A.; Lautenschlager, Rachel; Silva, Jason R.

doi:10.1080/0735648x.2019.1652921

Cited by 23 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…The present evidence base either relies on annual aggregations (which result in less precise estimates than smaller-level aggregations), only tests Ferguson rather than local events (Gaston et al, 2019;Gross & Mann, 2017;James, 2018;Pyrooz et al, 2016;Rosenfeld, 2015Rosenfeld, , 2016Rosenfeld et al, 2017;Rosenfeld & Wallman, 2019), or is limited to a single city or event, risking history bias (Capellan & Lautenschlager, 2019;Cassell & Fowles, 2018;Kapustin et al, 2017;S. L. Morgan, 2016;S.…”

Section: Evidence Gaps and Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 80%

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Police-involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era: A Study of 44 U.S. Cities

Lane

2021

J Interpers Violence

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This study investigated whether homicides increased after protested police-involved deaths, focusing on the period after Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson in August 2014. It also tests for effects of legal cynicism by comparing effects in homicide and aggravated assault on the assumption that reporting of the latter is discretionary and police abuses may make communities reluctant to notify police. Using FBI data from 44 U.S. cities, homicide and assault rates from 2011 to 2019 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design and combined in a meta-analysis to calculate pooled effects. A meta-regression tested effect moderators including external investigations and city/county sociodemographic characteristics. With a conservative threshold of p ≤ .01, 21 of the 44 cities experienced a significant increase and one had a significant decrease. The pooled effect was a 26.1% increase in the homicide (99% CI: 15.3% to 36.8%). Aggravated assaults increased above baseline, though the effect was 15.2 percentage points smaller (99% CI: –26.7 to –3.6) than the effect in homicides. When outcomes were measured as percent change, there were no significant effect moderators, but when measured as absolute change, homicides increased to a greater extent when the death was subject to external investigation and in cities with higher Black populations, poverty rates, and baseline homicide rates. The findings suggest that protested police-involved deaths led to an increase in homicides and other violence due to the distrust fomented within the very communities whom police are meant to protect.

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Section: Evidence Gaps and Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…However, the de-policing mechanism is generally unsupported by evidence (Capellan et al, 2020;Rosenfeld & Wallman, 2019;Shjarback et al, 2017). While de-policing has occurred after police-involved deaths, it has not been linked to changes in homicide rates.…”

Section: Proposed Mechanismsthe Many Faces Of the Ferguson Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Police-involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era: A Study of 44 U.S. Cities

Lane

2021

J Interpers Violence

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“…To others, de-policing referred to restrictions due to external regulation or oversight (Cassell & Fowles, 2018;Rushin & Edwards, 2016). However, this mechanism is generally unsupported by evidence (Capellan & Lautenschlager, 2019;Rosenfeld & Wallman, 2019;Shjarback et al, 2017). One study attributed the increase in homicides in Chicago to police abandoning stop-and-frisks, itself the result of a consent decree with the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) (Cassell & Fowles, 2018 .…”

Section: Proposed Mechanismsthe Many Faces Of the Ferguson Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study investigated whether in the post-Ferguson era, protested police-involved deaths in other cities resulted in local increases in homicides. The bulk of existing evidence on this topic either relies on annual data (which is less precise than smaller aggregations), only tests Ferguson rather than local events (Gaston et al, 2019;Gross & Mann, 2017;James, 2018;Pyrooz et al, 2016;Rosenfeld, 2015Rosenfeld, , 2016Rosenfeld et al, 2017;Rosenfeld & Wallman, 2019), or is limited to a single city or event, risking history bias (Capellan & Lautenschlager, 2019;Cassell & Fowles, 2018;Kapustin et al, 2017;S. L. Morgan, 2016;S.…”

Section: Study Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Police-involved deaths and the impact on homicide rates in the post-Ferguson era: a study of 44 US cities

Lane¹

2020

Preprint

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This study investigated whether in the post-Ferguson era, homicide rates increased in cities where there was a protested police-involved death. It also tests for evidence of two potential mechanisms. To test for evidence of legal cynicism, effects between homicide and aggravated assault rates are compared; a gap would suggest reduced reporting and community disengagement from police. The moderating influence of state or federal investigation was examined as a potential indicator of de-policing. Using an interrupted time series design, I analysed trends in 45 US cities with a protested police-involved death. Results were combined using a meta-analysis, and meta-regressions were used to test for moderating effects. A funnel plot and Egger’s regression were used to test for bias in event selection. Averaged across all cities, there was an acute and largely sustained increase of 31.6% in the homicide rate, which was significantly larger than the effect in aggravated assaults. Effects were not significantly moderated by state or federal investigations. There was no evidence of bias in event selection. The findings suggest that police-involved deaths can have wider-reaching increases in violence in the communities they are meant to protect.

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Disentangling the Impact of Covid-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime in New York City

2022

Self Cite

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The Covid-19 stay-at-home restrictions put in place in New York City were followed by an abrupt shift in movement away from public spaces and into the home. This study used interrupted time series analysis to estimate the impact of these changes by crime type and location (public space vs. residential setting), while adjusting for underlying trends, seasonality, temperature, population, and possible confounding from the subsequent protests against police brutality in response to the policeinvolved the killing of George Floyd. Consistent with routine activity theory, we found that the SAH restrictions were associated with decreases in residential burglary, felony assault, grand larceny, rape, and robbery; increases in non-residential burglary and residential grand larceny motor vehicle; and no change in murder and shooting incidents. We also found that the protests were associated with increases in several crime types: felony assault, grand larceny, robbery, and shooting incidents. Future research on Covid-19's impact on crime will need to account for these potentially confounding events.

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Deconstructing the Ferguson effect: a multilevel mediation analysis of public scrutiny, de-policing, and crime

Cited by 23 publications

References 50 publications

Police-involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era: A Study of 44 U.S. Cities

Police-involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era: A Study of 44 U.S. Cities

Police-involved deaths and the impact on homicide rates in the post-Ferguson era: a study of 44 US cities

Disentangling the Impact of Covid-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime in New York City

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