Decomposition of carbon emission factors in china's power industry: considering transmission and distribution

Abstract

With the proposal of achieving the "3060" targets in China, as well as the demand to advance the construction of a newtype power system, a profound analysis of the driving factors behind carbon emissions in the power industry holds significant strategic importance for China. This study comprehensively employs the LMDI to investigate the impact of various factors, including carbon intensity, thermal power fuel consumption structure, thermal power generation efficiency, energy structure, power dispatch, transmission and distribution losses, electricity consumption-economic intensity, economic development, and population density, on carbon emissions in China's power industry and 30 provincial regions from 2005 to 2020. The results reveal the following findings: (1) Economic development level emerges as the primary driving force behind carbon emissions growth, followed by population density. Thermal power fuel consumption structure, thermal power generation efficiency, and electricity consumption-economic intensity play crucial roles in curbing carbon emissions growth. (2) Energy structure, power dispatch, and transmission and distribution losses contribute to restraining carbon emissions growth. (3) Population density acts as a suppressor of carbon emissions growth in provinces with continuous outflow of population. In contrast, electricity consumption-economic intensity and thermal power generation efficiency act as promoters of carbon emissions growth in provinces with dominant heavy industries. The influence of power dispatch and transmission and distribution losses on carbon emissions varies significantly among different provinces. Finally, this study provides policy recommendations for carbon emission reduction efforts. This study contributes to the formulation of more effective emission reduction strategies by the government and relevant authorities.