Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as a Reaction to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Many factors influence the prices of energy commodities and the value of energy and fuel companies. Among them there are the following factors: economic, social, environmental and political, and recently also the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the paper is to examine what the probability and intensity of a decrease in the prices of shares of energy and fuel companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (Poland) was during the first wave of the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020. The study used the survival analysis methods: the Kaplan-Meier estimator, the test of equality of duration curves and the Cox non-proportional hazards model. The analysis showed that the probability and intensity of price decline of energy and fuel companies in the initial period was the same as that of other companies. The differences become apparent only after 50 days from the established maximum of their value. The risk of price declines in energy and fuel companies increased significantly. This situation was related both to a temporary reduction in demand for energy and fuels, pandemic restrictions introduced in individual countries and the behaviour of stock market investors.

Risk of Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Sector on the Warsaw Stock Exchange During the Two Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…The results obtained for the first wave of the pandemic are in line with the authors' earlier studies on the intensity of share price decline of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The application of survival analysis methods showed that the intensity of share price decline in oil and energy companies was higher than for other sectors (Bieszk-Stolorz and Markowicz, 2021).…”

Energy markets restructure beyond 2022 and its implications on Qatar LNG sales strategy: Business forecasting and trend analysis

“…Like other economies, the drop in consumption created uncertainty in economic development and companies' revenue growth. The impact was extended to a drop in companies' share prices listed on the Poland Warsaw Stock Exchange, as investigated by Bieszk-Stolorz [ 76 ] for the first quarter of 2020. Abadie [ 77 ] reported a stochastic diffusion model for forecasting Spanish daily quotes using the end of 2019 as a starting point in the context of modelling wholesale natural gas markets during shocks.…”