Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Praça, Isabel; Pires, E. J. Solteiro; Lopes, Fernando

doi:10.3390/en8099817

Cited by 31 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Again, this paper develops an activity which is ongoing, and cannot be defined as a project: as such, this paper is outside the scope of our review. Similarly, Pinto et al (2015) [89] introduced a game-theoretic framework to model the decision-making behaviour of electricity market players in bilateral negotiations. Contracts made by such players among themselves have varying timespans, but do not reflect the time bound nature of projects, and may last for any length of time.…”

Section: Papers Relevant To Project Management But Not Explicitly Setmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applications of Game Theory in Project Management: A Structured Review and Analysis

Piraveenan

2019

Mathematics

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This paper provides a structured literature review and analysis of using game theory to model project management scenarios. We select and review thirty-two papers from Scopus, present a complex three-dimensional classification of the selected papers, and analyse the resultant citation network. According to the industry-based classification, the surveyed literature can be classified in terms of construction industry, ICT industry or unspecified industry. Based on the types of players, the literature can be classified into papers that use government-contractor games, contractor–contractor games, contractor-subcontractor games, subcontractor–subcontractor games or games involving other types of players. Based on the type of games used, papers using normal-form non-cooperative games, normal-form cooperative games, extensive-form non-cooperative games or extensive-form cooperative games are present. Also, we show that each of the above classifications plays a role in influencing which papers are likely to cite a particular paper, though the strongest influence is exerted by the type-of-game classification. Overall, the citation network in this field is sparse, implying that the awareness of authors in this field about studies by other academics is suboptimal. Our review suggests that game theory is a very useful tool for modelling project management scenarios, and that more work needs to be done focusing on project management in ICT domain, as well as by using extensive-form cooperative games where relevant.

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Section: Papers Relevant To Project Management But Not Explicitly Setmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applications of Game Theory in Project Management: A Structured Review and Analysis

Piraveenan

2019

Mathematics

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“…While the above are relevant, this paper most significantly builds off of Williams and Gong's [34] project description text mining, Marzouk et al's [35] contractual text mining, Choudhary et al's [36] use of lessons learned to improve processes, and Pinto et al [37] and Lotfian et al's [38] models which aid optimization negotiations. Williams and Gong [34] conducted a study assessing the text contained within construction projects' descriptions to predict expected cost performance.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Text Mining to Estimate Schedule Delay Risk of 13 Offshore Oil and Gas EPC Case Studies During the Bidding Process

Son

2019

Energies

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Korean offshore oil and gas (O&G) mega project contractors have recently suffered massive deficits due to the challenges and risks inherent to the offshore engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) of megaprojects. This has resulted in frequent prolonged projects, schedule delay, and consequently significant cost overruns. Existing literature has identified one of the major causes of project delays to be the lack of adequate tools or techniques to diagnose the appropriateness and sufficiency of the contract deadline proposed by project owners prior to signing the contract in the bid. As such, this paper seeks to propose appropriate or correct project durations using the research methodology of text mining for bid documents. With the emergence of ‘big data’ research, text mining has become an acceptable research strategy, having already been utilized in various industries including medicine, legal, and securities. In this study the scope of work (SOW), as a main part of EPC contracts is analyzed using text mining processes in a sequence of pre-processing, structuring, and normalizing. Lessons learned, collected from 13 executed off shore EPC projects, are then used to reinforce the findings from said process. For this study, critical terms (CT), representing the root of past problems, are selected from the reports of lessons learned. The occurrence of the CT in the SOW are then counted and converted to a schedule delay risk index (SDRI) for the sample projects. The measured SDRI of each sample project are then correlated to the project’s actual schedule delay via regression analysis. The resultant regression model is entitled the schedule delay estimate model (SDEM) for this paper based on the case studies. Finally, the developed SDEM’s accuracy is validated through its use to predict schedule delays on recently executed projects with the findings being compared with actual schedule performance. This study found the relationship between the SDRI, frequency of CTs in the SOW, and delays to be represented by the regression formula. Through assessing its performance with respect to the 13th project, said formula was found to have an accuracy of 81%. As can be seen, this study found that more CTs in the SOW leads to a higher tendency for a schedule delay. Therefore, a higher project SDRI implies that there are more issues on projects which required more time to resolve them. While the low number of projects used to develop the model reduces its generalizability, the text mining research methodology used to quantitatively estimate project schedule delay can be generalized and applied to other industries where contractual documents and information regarding lessons learned are available.

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“…The simulator has several subsystems, with specific roles. For example, the Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System (ALBidS) [67] aims to provide strategic support in auctioned markets, while the Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation (DECON) [68] is designed to support the direct contract of energy between entities. AiD-EM allows one to deal with different user profiles and adopt the strategies most appropriate for each opponent.…”

Section: Systems and Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Agent Decision Support Tool to Enable Interoperability among Heterogeneous Energy Systems

et al. 2018

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Worldwide electricity markets are undergoing a major restructuring process. One of the main reasons for the ongoing changes is to enable the adaptation of current market models to the new paradigm that arises from the large-scale integration of distributed generation sources. In order to deal with the unpredictability caused by the intermittent nature of the distributed generation and the large number of variables that contribute to the energy sector balance, it is extremely important to use simulation systems that are capable of dealing with the required complexity. This paper presents the Tools Control Center (TOOCC), a framework that allows the interoperability between heterogeneous energy and power simulation systems through the use of ontologies, allowing the simulation of scenarios with a high degree of complexity, through the cooperation of the individual capacities of each system. A case study based on real data is presented in order to demonstrate the interoperability capabilities of TOOCC. The simulation considers the energy management of a microgrid of a real university campus, from the perspective of the network manager and also of its consumers/producers, in a projection for a typical day of the winter of 2050.

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Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

Cited by 31 publications

References 42 publications

Applications of Game Theory in Project Management: A Structured Review and Analysis

Applications of Game Theory in Project Management: A Structured Review and Analysis

Using Text Mining to Estimate Schedule Delay Risk of 13 Offshore Oil and Gas EPC Case Studies During the Bidding Process

Multi-Agent Decision Support Tool to Enable Interoperability among Heterogeneous Energy Systems

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