Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

MacGregor, Donald G.; González-Cabán, Armando

doi:10.2737/psw-rp-258

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(13 reference statements)

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“…Rather, it is argued that decision makers are selectively rational and seek satisfactory (rather than optimal) decisions. This perspective reflects the concept of 'satisficing' proposed by Simon (1955), and is in concert with cue-based decision models in which decision-makers rely both on their experience and cues from the environment when making decisions in a dynamic environment (MacGregor and González-Cabán 2008).…”

Section: Decision-making On Wildland Firesmentioning

confidence: 87%

Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires

Holmes

Calkin

2013

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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In this paper, we use operational data collected for large wildland fires to estimate the parameters of economic production functions that relate the rate of fireline construction with the level of fire suppression inputs (handcrews, dozers, engines and helicopters). These parameter estimates are then used to evaluate whether the productivity of fire suppression inputs during extensive fire suppression efforts are similar to productivity estimates derived from direct observation and used as standard rates by the US Forest Service. The results indicated that the production rates estimated with operational data ranged from ~14 to 93% of the standard rates. Further, the econometric models indicated that the productivity of all inputs taken together increases more than proportionally as their use is increased. This result may indicate economies of scale in fire suppression or, alternatively, that fire managers learn how resources may be deployed more productively over the course of a fire. We suspect that the identified productivity gaps are primarily due to unobserved factors related to fire behaviour, other resources at risk, firefighter fatigue, safety considerations and managerial decision-making. The collection of more precise operational data could help reduce uncertainty regarding the relative importance of factors that contribute to productivity shortfalls.

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Section: Decision-making On Wildland Firesmentioning

confidence: 87%

Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires

Holmes

Calkin

2013

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…Maguire and Albright (2005) offer solutions to risk aversion in decisionmaking, including increased use of structured decision processes to overcome mental shortcuts, a shift in reward systems to encourage adaptive management, and increased locally focused collaborations that improve an understanding of management goals and practices. An additional benefit is the improved accessibility and usability of local knowledge, also essential to improved decisionmaking processes and outcomes (MacGregor and González-Cabán 2008).…”

Section: Decisionmaking Science and Effects On Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Science synthesis to support socioecological resilience in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range

Long¹,

Quinn‐Davidson²,

Skinner³

2014

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“…Para poder sortear estos retos, la presente investigación se enfocó en elementos de decisiones de incidentes y solicitó al personal asociado con incidentes reales informar sus experiencias con influencias sociopolíticas en incidentes así como también el impacto de esas influencias en decisiones claves de incidentes, incluyendo estrategias, tácticas y objetivos de manejo de incendios. El método generalmente siguió los lineamientos de investigación previa que utilizó la modelación de decisiones como base para caracterizar decisiones de manejo de incendios (MacGregor & González-Cabán 2008).…”

Section: Contexto Del Estudiounclassified

Memorias del quinto simposio internacional sobre políticas, planificación y economía de los incendios forestales: servicios ambientales e incendios forestales

González-Cabán¹,

Sánchez²

2019

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sostenido de madera, agua, forraje, vida silvestre y la recreación. Siguiendo el mandato del Congreso, trata de proveer una cantidad mayor de servicios a una Nación en crecimiento a través de in-vestigaciones forestales, la cooperación con los Estados y los dueños de bosques privados, y el manejo de los Bosques Nacionales y las Tierras de Pastos Nacionales.El Departamento de Agricultura de los EE.UU. (USDA, siglas en inglés) prohíbe la discriminación en todas sus actividades y programas por razones de raza, color, nacionalidad de origen, edad, discapacidad; y cuando sea aplicable, por razones de sexo, condición civil, condición familiar, condición de paternidad, religión, preferencia sexual, información genética, convicciones políticas, revanchismo, o porque una parte o todo del sustento económico de la persona provenga de los programas de beneficencia pública (no todas las prohibiciones aplican a todos los programas). Las personas con discapacidad que necesiten medios alternativos para recibir información sobre los programas (Braille, impresos grandes, cintas de audio u otros) deben contactar el Centro TARGET del USDA al teléfono (202) 720-2600 (voz y TDD). Para establecer una querella sobre discriminación, por favor escriba a USDA, Director,

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Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

Cited by 6 publications

References 27 publications

Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires

Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires

Science synthesis to support socioecological resilience in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range

Memorias del quinto simposio internacional sobre políticas, planificación y economía de los incendios forestales: servicios ambientales e incendios forestales

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