Consider a population of parent entities, each of which is characterised by some characteristic ( = 1, 2, … , ). This characteristic might be a continuous phenotypic value of the entities, such as a bacterium's investment in public good production or a pathogen's virulence, an indicator variable that is 1 if the entity displays a certain behaviour (e.g., altruism) and 0 if it does not, or a measure of allelic dosage. Let = 1 ∑ =1 denote the mean value of in the population.2 If public-good producers and cheaters are initially mixed at a 1:1 ratio and the inoculum size is large, the initial frequency of public-good producing cells is very similar for all cultures, i.e., Φ ≈ 0.5 for all cultures . The between-culture variation is then small, and the within-culture variation is large (within-culture variation is maximal if Φ = 0.5). If the inoculum size is small, by chance populations are more often initialised with either a large or small frequency of public-good producers. This increases the between-culture variation and decreases within-culture variation.12 Chapter 1. IntroductionSo far, we have focused on the effects of spatial structure on microbial evolution. Next, we will turn our attention to another form of multilevel structure.3 0 is defined as the number of new infections caused by an infected individual in an otherwise susceptible host population.
Multilevel pathogen evolution1 13 the set-point viral load: the relatively stable concentration of viral particles in the blood during chronic infection (Fraser et al., 2007).
14Chapter 1. Introduction a A model of within-host dynamics is nested through functional relationships into a between-host epidemiological model Time Strain frequency Replication rate Replication rate Transmission rate Time to deathtransmission death b c Figure 1.3. Nested dynamical model of pathogen evolution. (a) A mechanistic or population genetic model is used to describe within-host dynamics of different pathogen strains. (b)The within-host model is nested in a between-host model by defining functional relationships between the within-host pathogen population and epidemiological characteristics. In the example shown here, the replication rate of the dominant pathogen strain affects the transmission rate and life expectancy of the host. These curves are based on observations of the relationship between the set-point viral load of an HIV-infection and infectiousness and time until the onset of AIDS (Fraser et al., 2007(Fraser et al., , 2014. (c) The epidemiological model describes the population dynamics of hosts and between-host transmission.