Decision analysis of strategies for reducing upholstered furniture fire losses

Abstract

This report gives an evaluation of three representative alternatives for reducing upholstered furniture fire losses. The project, the purpose of which is to test the utility of decision analysis in evaluating fire safety policy, has been sponsored by the Center for Fire Research, National Bureau of Standards. The analysis was performed jointly by the Program for Information and Hazard Analysis, Center for Fire Research and the Decision Analysis Group, SRI International. A preliminary project report was issued in November 1977 [1]. Since that time new data have become available which have been incorporated into the analysis. As this report goes to press more data are becoming available, which we will incorporate into any subsequent refinements of this analysis. Toward that end, we solicit comments from, the reader on new data sources as well as criticisms of the methods used.

Revisiting Our 1991 Paper on Fire Risk Assessment

“…Reference #1-the FRAMEworks model [14]-stopped well short of complete specifications for scenarios, frequencies and consequences for any of its four example cases. References #4 (a policy analysis tool developed at NIST) [10] and #5 (a hospital fire life risk assessment tool developed in Japan) [11] were classic event tree models, using fire experience data, considerable engineering judgment, and no fire modeling or fire test data. Reference #8 (the Building Fire Simulation Method) was a classic Markov-chain model, also using fire experience data and considerable engineering judgment, with no fire modeling or fire test data.…”

“…In our original paper, we included #4 and #5 as just a couple of the many examples already in use [10,11]. Finally, there was #11, a recently published U.S. fire service approach of listing community hazards and calling the resulting list a fire risk assessment [12].…”

Fire Research At Nbs: The First 75 Years

“…A pioneering study by Clarke and Ottoson [37] analyzed the characteristics of the major fire death scenarios involved in residential fire deaths. This was followed by predictive analyses of intervention strategies associated with fire deaths and injuries involving cigarettes on mattresses, carpets, and upholstered furniture [38] and formed the basis for the CPSC-mandated requirements in these areas. Such analyses included laboratory studies an example of which is the extensive evaluation of the burning characteristics of upholstered furniture [39].…”