Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Stickler, Alexander; Raible, Christoph C.; Muthers, Stefan; Anet, Julien; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmutz, W.

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3529-9

Cited by 47 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(109 reference statements)

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“…Both the time series show considerable year to year variability with high variability in low rainfall events and low variability in extreme rainfall events in the earlier part of the study period. Even though the trends are significant for the 16 year period, they are becoming part of a multi‐decadal variability as reported for the South Asian monsoon rainfall (Kripalani and Kulkarni, ; Malik et al ., ). The average numbers of days with low and high rainfall categories are 80.31 and 5.19 days/year with respective standard deviations of 7.6 and 3.04.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the extreme rainfall events during the southwest monsoon season in northeast regions of the Indian subcontinent

Varikoden

Revadekar

2019

Meteorological Applications

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Hydrological disasters are recurrent over the northeast Indian region (NEI) due to heavy downpours within a short span of time. Therefore, the characteristics of rainfall extremes during the southwest monsoon over the NEI, their evolution and dissipation features, are discussed using rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 and the Climate Prediction Center for 16 years from 2000 to 2015. Circulation features during the lead–lag of extreme events are also examined using the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis products. Thirty‐two extreme events such that rainfall of the day exceeds the 90th percentile were identified. During the extreme events, heavy rainfall is located mainly in the NEI without much spread in the aerial domain. The highest number of extreme rain events is found in July, followed by June and August. Trend analysis of the rainfall indicates a significant decrease in low rainfall events and this decreasing trend is compensated by the significant increasing trend in very heavy (>95 percentile) to extremely heavy (>99 percentile) rainfall events. The average life of the extreme rainfall events is found to be about 3 days during which the NEI receives more than 100 mm/day; however, on individual examination, this ranges from 2 to 5 days. A strengthening of the southerly component of lower level wind from the Bay of Bengal and an updraft due to convergence at 850 hPa over the region favours the rainfall peak. The sea level pressure anomaly gradient and vertical velocity show a sudden development of conditions favourable for a heavy downpour over the northeast region.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the extreme rainfall events during the southwest monsoon season in northeast regions of the Indian subcontinent

Varikoden

Revadekar

2019

Meteorological Applications

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“…The Indian Summer Monsoon has been shown to be affected by SSTs in the Atlantic (Goswami, Madhusoodanan, Neema, & Sengupta, ; Krishnamurthy & Krishnamurthy, ) and the Pacific. Specifically, decadal phases of monsoon failure in climate model simulations have been found to coincide with phases of negative AMO and concurrent positive PDO (Malik et al, ). The AMO may be linked to the Indian monsoon through changes in the summer NAO and Eurasian temperatures, which affect the meridional temperature gradient over south Asia (Goswami, Madhusoodanan, Neema, & Sengupta, ).…”

Section: Extreme Weather and Climate Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences

Hegerl

Brönnimann

Schurer

et al. 2018

WIREs Climate Change

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151

115

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The most pronounced warming in the historical global climate record prior to the recent warming occurred over the first half of the 20th century and is known as the Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW). Understanding this period and the subsequent slowdown of warming is key to disentangling the relationship between decadal variability and the response to human influences in the present and future climate. This review discusses the observed changes during the ETCW and hypotheses for the underlying causes and mechanisms. Attribution studies estimate that about a half (40–54%; p > .8) of the global warming from 1901 to 1950 was forced by a combination of increasing greenhouse gases and natural forcing, offset to some extent by aerosols. Natural variability also made a large contribution, particularly to regional anomalies like the Arctic warming in the 1920s and 1930s. The ETCW period also encompassed exceptional events, several of which are touched upon: Indian monsoon failures during the turn of the century, the “Dust Bowl” droughts and extreme heat waves in North America in the 1930s, the World War II period drought in Australia between 1937 and 1945; and the European droughts and heat waves of the late 1940s and early 1950s. Understanding the mechanisms involved in these events, and their links to large scale forcing is an important test for our understanding of modern climate change and for predicting impacts of future change.This article is categorized under:Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

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“…These datasets are currently being used for e.g. studies on dynamical processes and evaluation of models in many different regions and fields globally 16 , 17 . Due to their long time-coverage it also opens up the opportunity to study low frequency rainfall variability in Sahel.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representation of Multidecadal Sahel Rainfall Variability in 20th Century Reanalyses

Berntell

Zhang

Chafik

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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Summer rainfall in the Sahel region has exhibited strong multidecadal variability during the 20th century causing dramatic human and socio-economic impacts. Studies have suggested that the variability is linked to the Atlantic multidecadal variability; a spatially persistent pattern of warm/cold sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In the last few years, several promising century-long reanalysis datasets have been made available, opening up for further studies into the dynamics inducing the observed low-frequency rainfall variability in Sahel. We find that although three of the 20th century ECMWF reanalyses show clear multidecadal rainfall variability with extended wet and dry periods, the timing of the multidecadal variability in two of these reanalyses is found to exhibit almost anti-phase features for a large part of the 20th century when compared to observations. The best representation of the multidecadal rainfall variability is found in the ECMWF reanalysis that, unlike the other reanalyses (including NOAA’s 20th century), do not assimilate any observations and may well be a critical reason for this mismatch, as discussed herein. This reanalysis, namely ERA-20CM, is thus recommended for future studies on the dynamics driving the multidecadal rainfall variability in Sahel and its linkages to the low-frequency North Atlantic oceanic temperatures.

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Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM

Cited by 47 publications

References 90 publications

On the extreme rainfall events during the southwest monsoon season in northeast regions of the Indian subcontinent

On the extreme rainfall events during the southwest monsoon season in northeast regions of the Indian subcontinent

The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences

Representation of Multidecadal Sahel Rainfall Variability in 20th Century Reanalyses

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