Decadal-Scale Climate and Ecosystem Interactions in the North Pacific Ocean

Miller, Arthur J.; Chai, Fei; Chiba, Sanae; Moisan, John R.; Neilson, Douglas J.

doi:10.1023/b:joce.0000038325.36306.95

Cited by 98 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 214 publications

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“…After the end of the 1970s, for example, corresponding to the positive phase of the PDO, the upper-ocean temperatures were higher than those in the preceding decades along the west coasts of North and South America and over the equatorial Pacific, while they were lower over the western and central North Pacific (14, 15). The PDO has recently attracted much attention not only in climate studies but also in impact assessments in the areas of agriculture, water resources, and fisheries (13,16,17). Successful prediction of the state of the PDO over timescales of years to one decade has considerable societal benefits (18).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction

Mochizuki

Ishii

Kimoto

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

199

179

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Decadal-scale climate variations over the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings are strongly related to the so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which is coherent with wintertime climate over North America and Asian monsoon, and have important impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030, we require knowledge of the future state of internal variations in the climate system such as the PDO as well as the global warming signal. We perform sets of ensemble hindcast and forecast experiments using a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model to examine the predictability of internal variations on decadal timescales, in addition to the response to external forcing due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, volcanic activity, and solar cycle variations. Our results highlight that an initialization of the upper-ocean state using historical observations is effective for successful hindcasts of the PDO and has a great impact on future predictions. Ensemble hindcasts for the 20th century demonstrate a predictive skill in the upper-ocean temperature over almost a decade, particularly around the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (KOE) and subtropical oceanic frontal regions where the PDO signals are observed strongest. A negative tendency of the predicted PDO phase in the coming decade will enhance the rising trend in surface air-temperature (SAT) over east Asia and over the KOE region, and suppress it along the west coasts of North and South America and over the equatorial Pacific. This suppression will contribute to a slowing down of the global-mean SAT rise.climate change | data assimilation | decadal prediction | decadal variability | global warming A near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030 is a major issue to be addressed in the next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1, 2). To make the political decisions required to solve the socioeconomic problems arising from climate change over the coming decades, we need to take into account the large-scale climate changes associated with internal climate variability as well as the global warming signals (i.e., the response to external forcing due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, volcanic activity, and solar cycle variations) (3-6). A globally averaged surface-air-temperature (SAT) forecast up to 2030 depends little on specific socioeconomic scenarios or models used in centennial climate projection experiments (7, 8). On decadal timescales, SAT changes due to internal climate variability are comparable to those associated with global warming in magnitude (9). The predictability of internal climate variations is central to validating our skills in predicting the near-term climate variations.Prediction of internal decadal variability in the climate system represents one of the newest and toughest challenges. It is only recently that near-term climate projection experiments have been carried out focusing on internal decada...

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction

Mochizuki

Ishii

Kimoto

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

199

179

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The amplitude of the PDO increases when an oceanic mixed layer model is added under the atmosphere, and increases again when full ocean dynamics are added, especially in the decadal frequency range (Barnett et al 1999;Pierce 2001). Different oceanic processes contribute to enhanced power at different frequencies and locations (e.g., Schneider et al 2002;Miller et al 2004;Schneider and Cornuelle 2005). Part of this increase in North Pacific variability due to ocean dynamics can be ascribed to ENSO, which creates a teleconnected response through the atmosphere that contributes to ocean variability in the North Pacific (e.g., Alexander et al 2002;Newman et al 2003;Deser et al 2004).…”

Section: B Pacific Decadal Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled ocean–atmosphere modeling and predictions

Miller¹,

Collins²,

Gualdi³

et al. 2017

j mar res

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Key aspects of the current state of the ability of global and regional climate models to represent dynamical processes and precipitation variations are summarized. Interannual, decadal, and globalwarming timescales, wherein the influence of the oceans is relevant and the potential for predictability is highest, are emphasized. Oceanic influences on climate occur throughout the ocean and extend over land to affect many types of climate variations, including monsoons, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, decadal oscillations, and the response to greenhouse gas emissions. The fundamental ideas of coupling between the ocean-atmosphere-land system are explained for these modes in both global and regional contexts. Global coupled climate models are needed to represent and understand the complicated processes involved and allow us to make predictions over land and sea. Regional coupled climate models are needed to enhance our interpretation of the fine-scale response. The mechanisms by which large-scale, low-frequency variations can influence shorter timescale variations and drive regionalscale effects are also discussed. In this light of these processes, the prospects for practical climate predictability are also presented.

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“…These physical changes have been linked to a number of responses within the ecosystem of the Gulf (e.g. Benson and Trites, 2002;Mantua, 2004;Mantua et al, 1997;Miller et al, 2004). For some variables, especially biological ones, the mid-1970's transition was not a sharp change and the duration of the stable time periods before and after the shift may have ranged from 6 years to more than 20 years.…”

Section: Physical Oceanographic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides the issue of detecting significant regime changes from short time series, a greater problem lies in identifying the mechanisms by which the large-scale physical environmental changes drive associated biological regime shifts, which are highly uncertain (Francis and Hare, 1994;Miller et al, 2004;Miller and Schneider, 2000;Wooster and Zhang, 2004). Some detailed mechanisms have been proposed (e.g., Francis and Hare, 1994;Gargett, 1997;Wilderbuer et al, 2002;Hunt et al 2002), but none have yet been truly tested and validated with field studies.…”

Section: Physical Oceanographic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Fisheries Oceanography

2005

Cephalopods

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Decadal-Scale Climate and Ecosystem Interactions in the North Pacific Ocean

Cited by 98 publications

References 214 publications

Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction

Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction

Coupled ocean–atmosphere modeling and predictions

Fisheries Oceanography

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