Decadal reduction of Chinese agriculture after a regional nuclear war

Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael J.; Stenke, Andrea; Helfand, Ira

doi:10.1002/2014ef000283

Cited by 31 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(36 reference statements)

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“…Crop model results are in line with previous provisional estimates under a similar 5 Tg soot scenario (20,22), also confirming that irrigated systems are more resilient-this study provides a comprehensive global multimodel assessment across major crops (six different crop models and two different climate model configurations), critical for evaluating economic ramifications. Yield losses are attributed to anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and radiation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…However, quantitative agricultural and economic impact assessments are lacking (5,18). Simplified studies for single crops (5,19) or individual locations in the United States or China (20)(21)(22) point to potentially large crop failures. But a critical knowledge gap exists regarding how such production disturbances unfold globally and potentially cause repercussions for the food trade system (23,24).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

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A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Jägermeyr

Robock

Elliott

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 • C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30 • N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.food system shock | multiple breadbasket failure | cold temperature yield response | India-Pakistan conflict | global gridded crop model intercomparison (GGCMI)

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Jägermeyr

Robock

Elliott

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Using a GCM, Robock et al [2007] estimated that such a BC injection reduces the global-average surface short-wave radiation by a maximum of about 16 W m −2 (after about 5 months) and decreases the global mean surface temperature by 1.3 ∘ C. The BC injection also modifies the precipitation associated with the Asian summer monsoon. All changes have devastating impacts on the agriculture productivity in regions far from the conflict [Toon et al, 2007b;Özdogan et al, 2013;Xia and Robock, 2013;Mills et al, 2014;Xia et al, 2015].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition

et al. 2016

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Here, we use a coupled atmospheric-ocean-aerosol model to investigate the plume development and climate effects of the smoke generated by fires following a regional nuclear war between emerging third-world nuclear powers. We simulate a standard scenario where 5 Tg of black carbon (BC) is emitted over 1 day in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. However, it is likely that the emissions from the fires ignited by bomb detonations include a substantial amount of particulate organic matter (POM) and that they last more than 1 day. We therefore test the sensitivity of the aerosol plume and climate system to the BC/POM ratio (1:3, 1:9) and to the emission length (1 day, 1 week, 1 month). We find that in general, an emission length of 1 month substantially reduces the cooling compared to the 1-day case, whereas taking into account POM emissions notably increases the cooling and the reduction of precipitation associated with the nuclear war during the first year following the detonation. Accounting for POM emissions increases the particle size in the short-emission-length scenarios (1 day/1 week), reducing the residence time of the injected particle. While the initial cooling is more intense when including POM emission, the long-lasting effects, while still large, may be less extreme compared to the BC-only case. Our study highlights that the emission altitude reached by the plume is sensitive to both the particle type emitted by the fires and the emission duration. Consequently, the climate effects of a nuclear war are strongly dependent on these parameters.

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“…Recent studies use modern climate and crop models to examine the effects for a hypothetical India–Pakistan nuclear war scenario with 100 weapons (50 per side) each of 15 kilotons yield. The studies find agriculture declines in the range of approximately 2–50% depending on the crop and location (Özdoğan, Robock, & Kucharik, ; Xia, Robock, Mills, Stenke, & Helfand, ). Another study compares the crop data to existing poverty and malnourishment and estimates that the crop declines could threaten starvation for 2 billion people (Helfand, ).…”

Section: Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk–Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

Baum¹

2019

Risk Analysis

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To prevent catastrophic asteroid–Earth collisions, it has been proposed to use nuclear explosives to deflect away earthbound asteroids. However, this policy of nuclear deflection could inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war and other violent conflict. This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precise conclusion on the overall risk–risk tradeoff. The value of this article comes less from specific quantitative conclusions and more from providing an analytical framework and a better overall understanding of the policy decision. The article demonstrates the importance of integrated analysis of global risks and the policies to address them, as well as the challenge of quantitative evaluation of complex social processes such as violent conflict.

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Decadal reduction of Chinese agriculture after a regional nuclear war

Cited by 31 publications

References 22 publications

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition

Risk–Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

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