Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model

Persechino, Aurelie; Mignot, Juliette; Swingedouw, Didier; Labetoulle, Sonia; Guilyardi, Éric

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1466-1

Cited by 50 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…A large 20-yr periodicity has been identified in the AMOC and various ocean variables in the North Atlantic in this simulation of IPSL-CM5A (Escudier et al 2013), suggesting a potential predictability of the AMOC, surface temperature, and precipitation in the North Atlantic at the decadal scale (Persechino et al 2013). The AMOC variability in IPSL-CM5A-LR is illustrated in Fig.…”

Section: Amoc Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 55%

Mechanisms Determining the Winter Atmospheric Response to the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

et al. 2016

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In climate models, an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) precedes a warming in the North Atlantic subpolar basin by a few years. In the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, this warming may explain the atmospheric response to the AMOC observed in winter, which resembles a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). To firmly establish the causality links between the ocean and the atmosphere and illustrate the underlying mechanisms in this model, ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations are conducted, prescribing the SST and sea ice anomalies that follow an AMOC intensification. In late winter, the North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies drive atmospheric circulation anomalies similar to those found in the coupled model. Simulations only driven by the SST anomalies related to the AMOC show that the largest oceanic influence is due to the warm subpolar SST anomaly, which enhances the oceanic heat release and decreases the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity in the region of maximum eddy growth, resulting in a weaker meridional eddy heat flux in the atmosphere. The transient eddy feedback leads to a negative NAO-like response. An AMOC intensification is also followed by less sea ice over the Labrador Sea and more sea ice over the Nordic seas. The simulations with full boundary forcing suggest that such anomalies act to strengthen both the poleward momentum flux and the upward heat flux into the polar stratosphere and lead to a stratospheric warming, which then reinforces the negative NAO signal in late winter.

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Section: Amoc Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 55%

Mechanisms Determining the Winter Atmospheric Response to the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

et al. 2016

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“…This experimental setup has been widely used and is detailed in ref. 43. The reference simulation consists in a 1,000-y-long preindustrial simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR (1,800-2,799 in model years).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Séférian

Bopp

Gehlen

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N-30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.forecast | ecosystem management | marine biogeochemistry

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“…Perhaps most importantly, such studies have helped identify important mechanisms and, in particular, the key role of ocean circulation change in Atlantic predictability [92,104]. Recent perfect model studies have bolstered the consensus view that THC-related AMOC variability is predictable on roughly decadal timescales, that some initial states are significantly more predictable than others, and that enhanced AMOC predictability is closely related to enhanced predictability of AMOC-related heat content and surface climate fingerprints [110,[117][118][119][120].…”

Section: Predictability Of Decadal To Multi-decadal Atlantic Climate mentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Yeager

Robson

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

143

122

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Purpose of Review Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems. Recent Findings The AMOC-or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations-appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models. Summary Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.

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Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model

Cited by 50 publications

References 46 publications

Mechanisms Determining the Winter Atmospheric Response to the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Mechanisms Determining the Winter Atmospheric Response to the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

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