Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges

Hurrell, James W.; Delworth, T. L.; Danabasoglu, Gökhan; Drange, Helge; Griffies, Stephen M.; Holbrook, NJ; Kirtman, Benjamín; Keenlyside, Noel; Latif, Mojib; Marotzke, Jochem; Meehl, Gerald A.; Palmer, Tim; Pohlmann, Holger; Rosati, T.; Seager, Richard; Smith, Dana; Sutton, R.; Timmermann, Axel; Trenberth, K. E.; Tribbia, Joseph

doi:10.5270/oceanobs09.cwp.45

Cited by 61 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 65 publications

(112 reference statements)

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“…Observation-based data sets, proxy-based reconstructions as well as model simulations indicate the existence of climate variations on decadal to multi-decadal time scales and build the physical basis for decadal predictions (Meehl et al 2006;Latif et al 2006a;Hurrell et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

et al. 2011

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Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

et al. 2011

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“…The paradigm for a decadal prediction system [85], [86] is similar to that followed in seasonal forecasts. However, in decadal forecasting there are some processes, often overlooked in seasonal forecasting, that should be fully represented and initialized including those associated with radiative forcing by greenhouse gases, the deep ocean, and the cryosphere.…”

Section: Initial State For Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and Attribution and Prediction of Climate: Progress since the Fourth Assessment

Trenberth

Balmaseda

Bindoff

et al. 2010

Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society

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The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is a primary user of studies of the ocean and how it is changing. Following an introduction to the IPCC, the role of the ocean in climate is outlined, and the main findings from the 2007 IPCC assessment are described, along with outstanding issues for ocean science. The progress in addressing these issues is briefly discussed along with some recommendations for ocean observations.

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“…In other cases we need to be constantly alert to what Fernando Henrique Cardoso once labelled the 'originality of the copy'. 30 And in many places, relations of space and time and belonging have shifted so that 'North' and 'South' co-exist simultaneously within the same geographical space. 31 The mixed and hybrid character of the global order means that we need to be especially alert to the recombination of old and new not just at the level of global order but also at the level of the state and of state-society relations domestically.…”

Section: Emerging Powers and Transnational Capitalismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Narratives of emergence: rising powers and the end of the Third World?

Hurrell

2013

Rev. Econ. Polit.

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This article examines recent arguments from development economists, from historians and from international relations specialists that do challenge the continued relevance of the idea of the Third World. It then examines five reasons why these arguments are wrong. We can indeed understand much about emerging powers in terms of how they are seeking to navigate and best position themselves within an existing state-centric, liberal and capitalist order whilst accepting many of the underlying assumptions and values of that order. But the nature of that navigation has been shaped by their historical trajectory and by the developmental, societal and geopolitical context of their emergence.Keywords: BRICs; Global South; Third World; Emerging Powers. JEL classification: F02.Debates about the diffusion of power and the emergence of new powers have become ubiquitous. But even a cursory reading of the policy debates, the popular literature, and the steadily-growing volume of academic work reveals that there are many unanswered and unresolved questions. Some relate to the nature of power. Others relate to the range of very different understandings of the global order into which today's emerging powers are said to be emerging. But another set of questions -and the subject of this article -has to do with the political groupings, spatial categories and taken-for-granted historical geographies that shape both academic analyses and political understandings of emerging powers.

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Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges

Cited by 61 publications

References 65 publications

Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and Attribution and Prediction of Climate: Progress since the Fourth Assessment

Narratives of emergence: rising powers and the end of the Third World?

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