Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects

Love, Peter E.D.; Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D.

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2018.04.019

Cited by 85 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…The difference may be measured in absolute or relative terms. In absolute terms cost overrun is 16 ///Note to the editor and copy editor: The version of Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018) we have read contains many errors and oddities of language. We have marked these with " [sic]."…”

Section: What Is Cost Overrun and How Is It Measured?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we answer the questions in a response to Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018), invited by the editors. 16 We appreciate this opportunity to clarify what good and bad practice is in understanding and curbing cost overrun, and the many pitfalls that exist for good practice, eminently exemplified by Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui. We are delighted that Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui acknowledge that our work on cost underestimation, "Undeniably ... has made an impact ... [and] brought to attention issues that were possibly being overlooked The elephant in the room has been recognized as they say (p. YY).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Overview of statistical errors inLove and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018). Each error is documented and explained in the main text.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Five things you should know about cost overrun

Flyvbjerg

Ansar

Budzier

et al. 2018

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

118

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Section: What Is Cost Overrun and How Is It Measured?mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Five things you should know about cost overrun

Flyvbjerg

Ansar

Budzier

et al. 2018

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

118

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“…As the evidence stands, (that explanations in terms of bias are a myth) falls and our explanation stands, because it is better supported both theoretically and empirically. Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018). Each error is documented and explained in the main text.…”

Section: Conclusion: Good and Bad Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

“…If your job is to research, plan, finance, or deliver large capital projects, you need to have good answers to these questions. Here, we answer the questions in a response to Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018), invited by the editors. 16 We appreciate this opportunity to clarify what good and bad practice is in understanding and curbing cost overrun, and the many pitfalls that exist for good practice, eminently exemplified by Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui. We are delighted that Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui acknowledge that our work on cost underestimation, "Undeniably ... has made an impact ... [and] brought to attention issues that were possibly being overlooked The elephant in the room has been recognized as they say (p. YY).…”

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confidence: 99%

Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun

et al. 2018

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This paper gives an overview of good and bad practice for understanding and curbing cost overrun in large capital investment projects, with a critique of Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018) as point of departure. Good practice entails: (a) Consistent definition and measurement of overrun; in contrast to mixing inconsistent baselines, price levels, etc. (b) Data collection that includes all valid and reliable data; as opposed to including idiosyncratically sampled data, data with removed outliers, non-valid data from consultancies, etc. (c) Recognition that cost overrun is systemically fat-tailed; in contrast to understanding overrun in terms of error and randomness. (d) Acknowledgment that the root cause of cost overrun is behavioral bias; in contrast to explanations in terms of scope changes, complexity, etc. (e) De-biasing cost estimates with reference class forecasting or similar methods based in behavioral science; as opposed to conventional methods of estimation, with their century-long track record of inaccuracy and systemic bias. Bad practice is characterized by violating at least one of these five points. Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui violate all five. In so doing, they produce an exceptionally useful and comprehensive catalog of the many pitfalls that exist, and must be avoided, for properly understanding and curbing cost overrun. Five Key Questions about Cost Overrun Cost overrun in large capital investment projects can be hugely damaging, incurring outsize losses on investors and tax payers, compromising chief executives and their organizations, and even leading to bankruptcy (Flyvbjerg et al. 2009, Flyvbjerg and Budzier 2011). Accordingly, cost overrun receives substantial attention in both the professional literature and popular media. Yet it is not always clear how cost overrun is defined, why it happens, and how to best 1 All authors have co-authored or authored publications based on the data, theories, and methods commented on by Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018).

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Online users' attitudes toward fake news: Implications for brand management

Borges‐Tiago

Tiago

Silva

et al. 2020

Psychology and Marketing

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This study examines brands' vulnerability to fake news. The rapid spread of online misinformation poses challenges to brand managers, whose brands are co-created online, sometimes to the detriment of the brand. There is a need to identify the information sources that are likely to be trustworthy and to promote positive consumer attitudes toward brands. The data for this study were taken from a Flash Eurobarometer of 26,576 respondents across 28 European countries. Cluster analysis and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) were used to analyze the data and unveil users' attitudes toward fake news. The findings show that users' attitudes toward fake news differ among European countries. Younger and tech-savvy users are more likely to recognize fake news and are consequently able to evaluate digital information sources without relying on policy interventions to limit the impact of fake news. Brand managers can use the findings of this study to better understand different kinds of users' susceptibility to fake news and reshape their social media branding strategies accordingly. It is hoped that this paper will encourage further research on brand management in relation to fake news and promote the widespread adoption of best practices in social media communication.

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Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects

Cited by 85 publications

References 52 publications

Five things you should know about cost overrun

Five things you should know about cost overrun

Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun

Online users' attitudes toward fake news: Implications for brand management

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