Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003

Robine, Jean-Marie; Cheung, Siu Lan Karen; Roy, Sophie; Oyen, Herman Van; Griffiths, Clare; Michel, Jean‐Pierre; Herrmann, Françoís

doi:10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001

Cited by 1,436 publications

(801 citation statements)

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“…Daily temperatures 25 and numbers of deaths 13 corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions (that is, second level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics 13 ) are studied here, which essentially correspond to the domain affected by the 2003 heat wave 6,8 and some neighbouring countries. Because of the extremely large differences in population between regions, they were grouped in 54 larger and more homogeneously populated areas.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent updates of summer heat-related mortality raise the initial estimates up to 70,000 excess deaths, of which 11,000 occurred in June, 10,000 in July, 15,000 during the first week of August and 24,000 during the second week 13 . However, the spatial distribution of the incidence was not homogeneous, with mortality excesses of 13.7% (22.9%), 11.8% (37%) and 11.6% (21.8%) during the summer (August) of 2003 in Spain, France and Italy, respectively 13 (cf. Fig.…”

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confidence: 97%

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Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe

et al. 2011

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The steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is inducing a detectable rise in global temperatures. The sensitivity of human societies to warming temperatures is, however, a transcendental question not comprehensively addressed to date. Here we show the link between temperature, humidity and daily numbers of deaths in nearly 200 European regions, which are subsequently used to infer transient projections of mortality under state-of-the-art high-resolution greenhouse gas scenario simulations. our analyses point to a change in the seasonality of mortality, with maximum monthly incidence progressively shifting from winter to summer. The results also show that the rise in heat-related mortality will start to completely compensate the reduction of deaths from cold during the second half of the century, amounting to an average drop in human lifespan of up 3-4 months in 2070-2100. nevertheless, projections suggest that human lifespan might indeed increase if a substantial degree of adaptation to warm temperatures takes place.

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confidence: 99%

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Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe

et al. 2011

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“…Nevertheless, various studies have similar observations of increasing risks with increasing duration and intensity, particularly on HW days [9–11,13,14]. Major heat wave events have been recorded in the past years, such as the 1995 Chicago heat wave event, which claimed more than 600 excess deaths [15] and, in the summer of 2003, more than 70,000 excess deaths were recorded in Europe, which was partially attributed to the HW days [16]. …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Exploring the effects of high temperature on mortality in four cities in the Philippines using various heat wave definitions in different mortality subgroups

Seposo

Đăng

Honda

2017

Global Health Action

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Background: Sustained high temperatures, specifically heat waves (HW), increase the risk of dying, especially among risk populations, which are highly vulnerable to its additional effect. In developing countries, there are only a few studies which focused on the magnitude of the risks attributed to HWs. Objectives: This study explored the HW effects using 15 HW definitions through the combination of duration (> 2, > 4, and > 7 consecutive days) and intensity (at the ≥ 90th, ≥ 95th, ≥ 97th, ≥ 98th, and ≥ 99th temperature percentiles). Methods: Daily mortality count data from 2006–2010 were obtained from the four tropical cities of the Philippines, and were further stratified by mortality sub-groups, such as cause of death, sex, and age. The same period of daily maximum temperature and relative humidity were also collected. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to determine the risks associated with the main temperature effects, as well as the added HW effects. Results: It has been observed that the main temperature effects comprise a substantial portion of the risks compared to the HW effects, even across the mortality sub-groups. Further stratification by the sub-groups showed significant HW effects among the young and male populations. Conclusions: Results of this study can be of use to improve (1) candidate HW definition identification/selection, and (2) risk population-specific strategies, taking into consideration the risk attributions.

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“…Hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut down 27 % of oil production in the US (Yergin 2006) and Hurricane Sandy inflicted approximately $65 billion in economic losses across the US, the Caribbean, the Bahamas and Canada (Aon Benfield 2013). Extreme events can also cause substantial loss of life, like in 1998, when flooding and landslides due to Hurricane Mitch resulted in more than 10,000 deaths in Central America (Easterling et al 2000) or like in 2003, when the European summer heat wave resulted in more than 70,000 deaths in 16 countries (Robine et al 2008).…”

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Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

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In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

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Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003

Cited by 1,436 publications

References 11 publications

Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe

Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe

Exploring the effects of high temperature on mortality in four cities in the Philippines using various heat wave definitions in different mortality subgroups

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

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