Abstract:The purpose of this article is to understand and predict the Iranian behavior during the nuclear crisis. The model presented here provides a simple framework for structuring strategic interaction (game theory), a way to capture the beliefs of the actors prior to the crisis and deduce likely behavior from them (operational code analysis), and identify key factors (large‐group identity and political survival) to monitor real time to determine preferences independent from observed behavior. The main finding of th… Show more
“…Instead of uncovering patterns of interaction and conflict dynamics, Devlen (2010) focuses on predicting the behavior of one particular actor during a specific crisis. His contribution makes predictions about Iran’s behavior during the nuclear crisis between Iran and the United States.…”
“…Instead of uncovering patterns of interaction and conflict dynamics, Devlen (2010) focuses on predicting the behavior of one particular actor during a specific crisis. His contribution makes predictions about Iran’s behavior during the nuclear crisis between Iran and the United States.…”
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