De‐prosecution and death: A reply to an imprecise and ideological critique

Abstract

In an original article, I analyzed a potential causal link between the policy of de‐prosecution in Philadelphia and an increase in homicides. Utilizing the traditional synthetic control method with extensive descriptive data and a donor pool of the other 99 largest cities in the United States, the results demonstrated a statistically significant increase of over 74 homicides per year in Philadelphia during 2015‐19 associated with de‐prosecution (p<.05). A reaction essay addressing the original article on de‐prosecution has been submitted. In this reply, I correct inaccuracies in the reaction essay, explain the validity of methodological choices, discuss the reaction's misunderstanding of certain quantitative issues, and expose the ideological purposes of the reaction. In addition, I have included updated parallel research addressing the issue of de‐prosecution and examine the theoretical impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic on the interaction between de‐prosecution and homicides.

Do progressive prosecutors increase crime? A quasi‐experimental analysis of crime rates in the 100 largest counties, 2000–2020

“…Likewise, Goldrosen's (2022) analysis of progressive marijuana policies on drug arrests in Brooklyn, NY, revealed that the implementation of this policy did not significantly affect marijuana possession arrest rates. 4 While Hogan (2022) uses the "progressive" classification as a proxy for de-prosecution policies, others have used this classification to identify progressive prosecutors (e.g., Foglesong et al, 2022), and his results have sparked debates about the relationship between progressive prosecutors and crime (e.g., Foglesong et al, 2022;Hogan, 2023;Kajeepeta, 2022;Kaplan et al, 2022). Therefore, it is important to consider the pros and cons associated with Hogan's (2022) classification scheme.…”

“…(2022) re‐analyzed the data based on Hogan's criticism of their replication, continuing to find Philadelphia's de‐prosecution policies had no significant effect on homicide rates. Hogan (2023, p. 88) subsequently refuted these claims, arguing that Kaplan et al.’s (2022) critiques have an “ideological basis” and that once the errors in their analysis are corrected, the results show that de‐prosecution policies in Philadelphia have larger positive effects on homicides than suggested in the original article. Thus, Hogan (2023) contends that data errors in Kaplan et al.’s (2022) analysis undermine their criticism of his work.…”