Dawn of the Dead City: An Exploratory Analysis of Vacant Addresses in Buffalo, Ny 2008–2010

Abstract

This article examines residential vacancy patterns in Buffalo, NY, using data from a unique data set. It includes variables from HUD Aggregate USPS Administrative Data on Address Vacancies, the American Community Survey (ACS) 5‐year estimates for 2005–2009, housing choice voucher (HCV) records of local public housing agencies, and municipal in rem property records. Multiple regression is used to identify significant relationships between vacancy patterns, socioeconomic characteristics, and institutional factors. The findings from this analysis suggest that the percent of vacant residential properties increases in census tracts with elevated poverty rates, higher percentages of renters receiving rental assistance, and long‐term vacancies. They also suggest that the percent of abandoned residential properties increases in census tracts with highly concentrated black populations, elevated poverty rates, long‐term vacancies, and higher percentages of business addresses. We conclude that these relationships are unique to older core cities experiencing systemic population and job losses. These cities struggle with a distinct type of long‐term vacant and abandoned structures, which we label zombie properties. They can be contrasted with vacant and abandoned properties in transitional or regenerating areas. We offer recommendations for further analysis of zombie properties in these urban settings.

Housing Abandonment and Demolition: Exploring the Use of Micro-Level and Multi-Year Models

“…This modeling was used to build on previous studies of vacancy and Buffalo's local housing market [3,9,11,17,36,[39][40][41]. There are three hedonic price models on housing sales prices, three logistic regression models on vacancy and abandonment, and three logistic regression models on demolition.…”

“…While many past studies of housing abandonment in rust belt cities used data at the census tract or block group level [11,17,35], few have used property level spatial data, especially for multi-years, to understand the dynamic patterns and the impacts of abandonment and demolition on neighborhoods [9,36]. There is no universal definition of land abandonment or housing abandonment, and vacancy-related data often exist in different formats with different spatial extents and are compiled by various agencies or organizations for different purposes and years [6,11,37].…”

“…There is a "persistent and striking high level of Black-White residential segregation" in Buffalo [30]. Areas with the highest vacant rates are where the highest percentage of black population, highest poverty, and highest unemployment rates are found [17,41]. To alleviate the problems associated with high vacancy rates, Buffalo's Mayor launched the "5 in 5" Demolition Plan in 2006.…”

“…Others found that crime rates are high in distressed neighborhoods where public housing is targeted for demolition [15,16]. Silverman et al [17] argued that vacant and abandoned properties in cities like Buffalo represent a permanent fixture of the urban mileu. Once established, they quickly spread in distressed neighborhoods impacted by job and population loss.…”

“…They create negative impacts on neighboring homes, businesses and schools, pose safety risks, and negatively impact the welfare of a community [20]. The vacancy crisis is aggravated by continued job and population losses [14,17].…”