Davids, Goliaths, and Business Cycles

Abstract

We show that a simple, intuitive variable,   (Goliath versus David) reflects timevariation in discount rates related to changes in aggregate business conditions.   is the annual change in the weight of the largest 250 firms in the aggregate stock market, and is motivated by research that shows that small firms are more severely impacted than large firms by economic shocks due to differences in access to external finance. We find that   is the best single predictor of market returns out-of-sample among traditional predictors, predicting quarterly market returns with an out-of-sample  2 of 6.3% in the 1976-2011 evaluation period. Consistent with its motivation,   forecasts lower future  and aggregate investment growth.   also forecasts returns on treasury bonds and the 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios (and consequently  as well as ), with assets we ex-ante expect to be more sensitive to discount rate variation displaying greater sensitivity to  . We show that   is the only variable among traditional predictors that forecasts stock returns, bond returns, and macroeconomic variables. We also show that  's predictive ability is robust, and not due to information contained in traditional variables, such as  and net payout.

Validação de sistema de observação e análise tática em Futebol: SoccerEye

“…O jogo de Futebol constitui-se como um evento global que inclui numerosos microeventos (13) , configurando um sistema complexo especializado fortemente dominado por competências estratégicas e heurísticas (25) . Reconhece-se, portanto, que os comportamentos dos jogadores, por um lado subjacentes a princípios convergentes e, por outro, implícitos em opções divergentes que se desviam do rumo consensual pré-estabelecido (21) , induzem perturbações e incidentes críticos que alteram as diacronias do jogo (34) , resultando em dinâmicas tático-estratégicas próprias. Assim, das regularidades decorrentes das interações entre os jogadores, e destes com o envolvimento, emergem padrões de jogo representativos de identidades que indiciam diferentes graus e níveis de organização (26) .…”