2020
DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1852163
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Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S

Abstract: The COVID-induced recession began in March 2020 for the United States. We identify this turning point by applying a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to a real-time index of economic activity. Supporting evidence is also found from macroeconomic data releases and stock markets.

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Cited by 3 publications
(2 citation statements)
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“… 2 Based on a new big data index developed by Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) , Li and Sheng (2020) identify COVID-induced recession beginning in March 2020. Indeed, high-frequency data on small firm closings and activity from HomeBase ( https://joinhomebase.com/blog/real-time-covid-19-data/ ), as well as high-frequency data from Opportunity Insights ( https://tracktherecovery.org/ ) described in Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, and Stepner (2020) , point to a sharp contraction in activity beginning in mid-March.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“… 2 Based on a new big data index developed by Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) , Li and Sheng (2020) identify COVID-induced recession beginning in March 2020. Indeed, high-frequency data on small firm closings and activity from HomeBase ( https://joinhomebase.com/blog/real-time-covid-19-data/ ), as well as high-frequency data from Opportunity Insights ( https://tracktherecovery.org/ ) described in Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, and Stepner (2020) , point to a sharp contraction in activity beginning in mid-March.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In the past year, the economies of the countries across the world were confronted with serious health and economic challenges as a result of the rapid development and viral spread of COVID-19 [2,3,6,8]. Restrictive measures were taken throughout Europe, including Bulgaria, to limit the coronavirus outbreak [9,10,12]. Indeed, the measures introduced were regarded as effective in safeguarding and preserving human lives but at the same time they led to a significant global slowdown in economic growth [1,4,5,7].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%