Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S

Li, Haixi; Sheng, Xuguang Simon

doi:10.1080/13504851.2020.1852163

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“… 2 Based on a new big data index developed by Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) , Li and Sheng (2020) identify COVID-induced recession beginning in March 2020. Indeed, high-frequency data on small firm closings and activity from HomeBase ( https://joinhomebase.com/blog/real-time-covid-19-data/ ), as well as high-frequency data from Opportunity Insights ( https://tracktherecovery.org/ ) described in Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, and Stepner (2020) , point to a sharp contraction in activity beginning in mid-March.…”

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confidence: 99%

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations

Meyer

Prescott

Sheng

2022

International Journal of Forecasting

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147

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The authors are indebted to Nick Parker for his outstanding survey expertise and direction on wording questions. They also thank Patrick Higgins, an associate editor, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. They also thank the participants at the International Institute of Forecasters virtual workshop titled "Economic Forecasting in Times of COVID-19" for their valuable comments and criticisms. They would also like to thank members of the Atlanta Fed's research department for their comments on these findings through internal briefings. The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System. Any remaining errors are the authors' responsibility.

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confidence: 99%

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations

Meyer

Prescott

Sheng

2022

International Journal of Forecasting

Self Cite

147

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“…In the past year, the economies of the countries across the world were confronted with serious health and economic challenges as a result of the rapid development and viral spread of COVID-19 [2,3,6,8]. Restrictive measures were taken throughout Europe, including Bulgaria, to limit the coronavirus outbreak [9,10,12]. Indeed, the measures introduced were regarded as effective in safeguarding and preserving human lives but at the same time they led to a significant global slowdown in economic growth [1,4,5,7].…”

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confidence: 99%

Study into the COVID-19 Effects upon the North-Eastern Region Economy

Ahmedova

2021

SHS Web Conf.

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The primary objective of the present paper is to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the economy of the North-Eastern Region (NER) of the Republic of Bulgaria in an effort to systematize the appropriate mitigation measures to minimize the effects of COVID-19 outbreak. Determining the probable impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the NER economy is extremely difficult due to the pandemic dynamics and the constant shifts or changes in the forecasts related to its effects on the global economy and the development of the individual countries and regions in particular. The pandemic’s impact on the NER economy is carefully considered in terms of regional GDP per capita analysis; the key indicators of the labour resources; the development of travel and tourism industry, information and communication technologies (ICT), manufacturing industry, trade industry, maritime industry, cultural and creative industries, the level of foreign direct investment (FDI).

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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

2020

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We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower nearterm selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their 1-year ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms' 1-year ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms' near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations remain reasonably well-anchored.

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Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S

Abstract: The COVID-induced recession began in March 2020 for the United States. We identify this turning point by applying a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to a real-time index of economic activity. Supporting evidence is also found from macroeconomic data releases and stock markets.

Cited by 3 publications

References 18 publications

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations

Study into the COVID-19 Effects upon the North-Eastern Region Economy

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

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