Data mining and socio-spatial patterns of COVID-19: geo-prevention keys for tackling the pandemic

Abstract

A geographic perspective is essential in tackling COVID-19. This research study is framed in the collaboration project set up by the University of Cantabria, the Valdecilla Hospital Research Institute (IDIVAL) and the Regional Government of Cantabria. The case study is the Santander functional urban area (FUA), which is considered from a multi-scale perspective. The main source is the daily records of micro-data on COVID-19 cases and the methodology is based on ESRI geo-technologies, and more specifically on a tool called SITAR (a Spanish acronym which stands for Fast-Action Territorial Information System). The main goal is to analyse and contribute to knowledge of the spatial patterns of COVID-19 at neighbourhood level from a space-time perspective. To that end the research is based on data mining methods (3D bins and emerging hot-spots) and exploratory geo-statistical analysis (Global Moran’s Index, Nearest Neighbourhood and Ordinary Least Square analyses, among others). The study identifies space-time patterns that show significant hot-spots and demonstrates a high presence of the virus at building level in neighbourhoods where residential and economic uses are mixed. Knowing the spatial behaviour of the virus is strategically important for proposing geo-prevention keys, reducing spread and balancing trade-offs between potential health gains and economic burdens resulting from interventions to deal with the pandemic.

Mapping the Risk of COVID-19 Contagion at Urban Scale

“…One of the most relevant results of the study is the method to assess the hazard of contagion. The method is based on creating new spatial analysis units based on the movement of the infected people, which has been already proved to be effective in previous studies [18,24,40]. This approach contrasts other studies that assess the transmission of the virus and contagion hazard based on summing infected people at administrative units [10,11,22,23].…”

“…Those using a multiscale hazard approach. The measures implemented by governments include several scales with the aim of increasing their effectiveness [23,24].…”

“…This has enhanced the fact that some authors have analyzed the virus following a more logical and territorial spatial approach. Therefore, De Cos et al [24] provided information about the COVID-19 spatial patterns at a neighborhood scale with a spatial-temporal perspective. López et al [40] showed the different impact of the virus between urban and rural areas, highlighting the errors introduced by the functional division of the territory, such as the health analysis units.…”

Geographical Distribution and Social Justice of the COVID‐19 Pandemic: The Case of Palma (Balearic Islands)

“…In addition, he comments that the pandemic arrived somewhat later in Galicia and that its incidence was lower. De Cos Guerra et al (2021) analyze socio-spatial patterns of the pandemic in the city of Santander (Cantabria, Spain). The study identifies patterns of concentration of positive cases in buildings with neighborhoods with residential function and economic activities.…”

Regularidad global y variabilidad local de los patrones espacio temporales de la COVID 19 en Aragón (España)

“…Referidos a España, se han publicado varios trabajos sobre el tema a diversas escalas y con diferentes unidades espaciales (individuos, edificios, unidades espaciales regulares, municipios, zonas básicas de salud), pero, en conjunto, su número es relativamente pequeño. A escala metropolitana, se han identificado y caracterizado los patrones espaciotemporales de difusión de la pandemia en Málaga (Perles et al, 2021) y Santander (Cos et al, 2020de Cos Guerra et al, 2021). Los estudios elaborados a otras escalas analizan algunos impactos de la pandemia, así como su incidencia espaciotemporal expresada, básicamente, a través de la cartografía de varios indicadores (Andrés López et al, 2021;Fernández García et al, 2021;Miramontes Carballada & Balsa-Barreiro, 2021).…”