Data Integration for the Assessment of Population Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution for Global Burden of Disease Assessment

Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew L.; Amini, Heresh; Broday, David M.; Cohen, Aarón; Frostad, Joseph; Green, Amelia; Gumy, Sophie; Liu, Yang; Martin, Randall V.; Prüss‐Üstün, Annette; Simpson, Daniel; Donkelaar, Aaron van; Bräuer, Michael

doi:10.1021/acs.est.8b02864

Cited by 179 publications

(133 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…We are now seeing rapid development of other types of technologies that are playing increasingly important roles in measuring air pollution concentrations. For example, satellite remote sensing of aerosol optical depth and trace gases have advanced considerably over the last decade and have been used to derive ground-level estimates of PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and other pollutant concentrations globally (Duncan et al, 2014;Larkin et al, 2017;Shaddick et al, 2018;van Donkelaar et al, 2016). Rapid proliferation of low-cost sensing technologies on the market, while still challenged by quality and durability issues, is likely to be increasingly used in citizen science contexts and may serve a role in air quality surveillance, health studies, and public awareness (more on this in the Case Studies section) particularly as the technology advances (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014).…”

Section: Air Pollution In the 21st Centurymentioning

confidence: 99%

New Approaches to Identifying and Reducing the Global Burden of Disease From Pollution

et al. 2020

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Pollution from multiple sources causes significant disease and death worldwide. Some sources are legacy, such as heavy metals accumulated in soils, and some are current, such as particulate matter. Because the global burden of disease from pollution is so high, it is important to identify legacy and current sources and to develop and implement effective techniques to reduce human exposure. But many limitations exist in our understanding of the distribution and transport processes of pollutants themselves, as well as the complicated overprint of human behavior and susceptibility. New approaches are being developed to identify and eliminate pollution in multiple environments. Community-scale detection of geogenic arsenic and fluoride in Bangladesh is helping to map the distribution of these harmful elements in drinking water. Biosensors such as bees and their honey are being used to measure heavy metal contamination in cities such as Vancouver and Sydney. Drone-based remote sensors are being used to map metal hot spots in soils from former mining regions in Zambia and Mozambique. The explosion of low-cost air monitors has allowed researchers to build dense air quality sensing networks to capture ephemeral and local releases of harmful materials, building on other developments in personal exposure sensing. And citizen science is helping communities without adequate resources measure their own environments and in this way gain agency in controlling local pollution exposure sources and/or alerting authorities to environmental hazards. The future of GeoHealth will depend on building on these developments and others to protect a growing population from multiple pollution exposure risks. Plain Language SummaryThe health burdens of legacy contaminants, and the continuing global health burdens of current pollution, are crippling both global health and well-being. Much of the exposure science on these relatively well-studied pollutants is known, as is the general toxicity of past pollutants. But there is a great distance between understanding the toxicity and exposure sources of environmental pollutants and applying that knowledge in practical and just ways. This contribution summarizes several major repositories and ongoing sources of soil, dust, and air pollution and addresses the harmful effects from exposure to these. We also highlight some examples of the future of GeoHealth research in this area by providing case studies of current novel approaches that focus on bridging the science of pollution sources and distribution with real applications at the community level to reduce pollution's role in the global burden of disease.

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Section: Air Pollution In the 21st Centurymentioning

confidence: 99%

New Approaches to Identifying and Reducing the Global Burden of Disease From Pollution

et al. 2020

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“…To isolate the influence of transportation emission changes, all simulations used the same non-transportation emissions and 2010 meteorology. Interannual meteorological differences can affect estimated concentrations, but we expect that meteorological influences on concentrations would be about 20% or less of annual mean population-weighted surface PM 2.5 , based on satellite-derived PM 2.5 estimates [37].…”

Section: Chemical Transport Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To estimate the total PM 2.5 disease burden, we used year-specific concentration estimates reported by Shaddick et al [37] (figures S2 and S3) and integrated exposure response (IERs) curves for five year age bands for ischemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, lung cancer, lower respiratory infections, and diabetes from the GBD2017 study [1].…”

Section: Health Impact Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global burden of transportation tailpipe emissions on air pollution-related mortality in 2010 and 2015

Anenberg

Miller

Henze

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

123

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Emissions from the transportation sector are a major contributor to ambient air pollution, the leading environmental health risk factor globally. This study aims to quantify the contribution of tailpipe emissions from global transportation, disaggregated by four sub-sectors, to the global disease burden associated with ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ground-level ozone in 2010 and 2015. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to simulate transportation-attributable PM 2.5 and ozone concentrations, combined with epidemiological health impact assessment methods consistent with the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study to estimate the associated burden of disease. We estimate that emissions from the transportation sector were associated with 361 000 (95% CI, 258 000-462 000) PM 2.5 and ozone deaths in 2010 and 385 000 (95% CI, 274 000-493 000) in 2015. These results translate into 11.7% of total global ambient PM 2.5 and ozone deaths in 2010 and 11.4% in 2015. Together, PM 2.5 and ozone concentrations from transportation tailpipe emissions resulted in an estimated 7.8 million years of life lost and approximately $1 trillion (2015 US$) in health damages globally in 2015. Among transportation sub-sectors, on-road diesels contributed most to the health burden from transportation tailpipe emissions in nearly all trade blocs, for both PM 2.5 and ozone, though other sub-sectors also contributed substantially (particularly on-road non-diesel vehicles for ozone mortality, and shipping and non-road mobile sources for PM 2.5 mortality). These results indicate that despite recent adoption of more stringent vehicle emission regulations in many countries, the transportation sector remains a major contributor to the air pollution disease burden globally. Future work may explore the degree to which currently adopted policies, as well as expected growth in the transportation sector in India, Africa, and other rapidly developing locations, will influence future transportation-attributable public health burdens.

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“…Mortality estimates have also been proposed based on a combination of ground and/or satellite observations (Zhou et al 2015, Jerrett et al 2017, despite being mostly focused on geographically limited areas. A few attempts to combine observations-either from monitoring stations or satellites-and CTM results were made to overcome limitations of prior studies, both worldwide (Ford and Heald 2016, Van Donkelaar et al 2016, Shaddick et al 2018 and in China , Liang et al 2017, Bai et al 2019, Zou et al 2019. For instance, multiple studies used different geostatistical techniques to integrate PM 2.5 ground measurements, CTMs output, satellite observations of AOD and other land use and meteorological factors to estimate PM 2.5 exposure at different spatial scales, ranging from the city-level (Li et al 2016b, Tao et al 2020 to regional and national scales (Liang et al 2017, Bai et al 2019, Wei et al 2019.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring sources of uncertainty in premature mortality estimates from fine particulate matter: the case of China

Giani

Anav

Marco

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Atmospheric pollution from fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is one of the major concerns in China because of its widespread and harmful impacts on human health. In recent years, multiple studies have sought to estimate the premature mortality burden from exposure to PM 2.5 to inform policy decisions. However, different modeling choices have led to a wide array of results, with significant discrepancies both in the total mortality burden and in the confidence intervals. Here, we present a new comprehensive assessment of PM 2.5 -related mortality for China, which includes quantification of the main sources of variability, as well as of age and province-specific premature mortality trends during 2015-2018. Our approach integrates PM 2.5 observations from more than 1600 monitoring stations with the output of a high-resolution (8 km) regional simulation, to accurately estimate PM 2.5 fields along with their uncertainty, which is generally neglected. We discuss the sensitivity of mortality estimates to the choice of the exposure-response functions (ERFs), by comparing the widely used integrated exposure response functions (IERs) to the recently developed Global Exposure Mortality Models (GEMMs). By propagating the uncertainty in baseline mortalities, PM 2.5 and ERFs under a Monte Carlo framework, we show that the 95% confidence intervals of mortality estimates are considerably wider than previously reported. We thus highlight the need for more epidemiological studies to constrain ERFs and we argue that uncertainty related to PM 2.5 estimate should be also incorporated in health impact assessment studies. Although the overall mortality burden remains vast in China (~1.6 million premature deaths, according to GEMMs), our results suggest that 200 000 premature deaths were avoided and 195 billion US dollars were saved in 2018 compared to 2015, bolstering the mounting evidence about the effectiveness of China's air quality policies.

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Data Integration for the Assessment of Population Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution for Global Burden of Disease Assessment

Cited by 179 publications

References 36 publications

New Approaches to Identifying and Reducing the Global Burden of Disease From Pollution

New Approaches to Identifying and Reducing the Global Burden of Disease From Pollution

The global burden of transportation tailpipe emissions on air pollution-related mortality in 2010 and 2015

Exploring sources of uncertainty in premature mortality estimates from fine particulate matter: the case of China

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