Data-Driven Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic via Age-Structured Modelling and Prediction of the Health System Failure in Brazil amid Diverse Intervention Strategies

Abstract

In this work we propose a data-driven age-structured census-based SIRD-like epidemiological model capable of forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. We model the current scenario of closed schools and universities, social distancing of individuals above sixty years old and voluntary home quarantine to show that it led to a considerable reduction in the number of infections as compared with a scenario without any control measures. Notwithstanding, our model predicts that the current measures are not enough to avoid overloading the health system, since the demand for intensive care units will soon surpass the number available. We also show that an urgent intense quarantine might be the only solution to avoid this scenario and, consequently, minimize the number of severe cases and deaths. On the other hand, we demonstrate that the early relaxation of the undergoing isolation measures would lead to an increase of millions of infections in a short period of time and the consecutive collapse of the health system.

Health care seeking due to COVID-19 related symptoms and health care cancellations among older Brazilian adults: the ELSI-COVID-19 initiative

“…Systems are also necessary to prioritize individuals who have urgent non-COVID-19-related health needs. Current forecasting models predict that without immediate attention to infection control measures -consistently applied across all geographic areas of the country -the rates of infection and mortality will continue to rise and the health system may collapse 25,26 . The resulting catastrophe will affect everyone, but Brazil's older citizens, especially those with chronic conditions and those living in the poorest regions of the country, are particularly at risk for some of the most severe consequences.…”

Coronavirus Disease Pandemic Is a Real Challenge for Brazil

“…In Brazil, the number of intensive care units (ICUs) through February 2020 amounted to 36,939 beds, according to the Cadastro Nacional de Estabelecimentos de Saúde (CNES), with a historical occupancy of not <85%, which yields an ∼5500 free ICU beds. The global European number of ICUs per 100,000 inhabitants is ∼10, with the US leading the world with a ratio of 34.7:100,000; both, however, are far below what is expected to be needed as the number of infections approaches its peak (13).…”

Insufficient social distancing may be related to COVID-19 outbreak: the case of Ijuí city in Brazil

“…Our data showed that preventive behavior, related to the SDA recommendation and DPR, did not reach 70% of social distancing in any of the four steps of the survey. We mentioned this goal since it was proposed early that maintaining the capacity of social distancing at a maximum of 76% could avoid the death of 90,000 individuals and the overwhelm of the intensive care units in São Paulo (Brazil) [25]. Nowadays, São Paulo registered more than 20,000 COVID-19 cases and 9,00 deaths [23], suggesting that maintaining and strengthening current social distancing measures, quarantining and isolating cases, is absolutely vital to avoid the collapse of the healthcare systems in the country.…”

“…Nowadays, São Paulo registered more than 20,000 COVID-19 cases and 9,00 deaths [23], suggesting that maintaining and strengthening current social distancing measures, quarantining and isolating cases, is absolutely vital to avoid the collapse of the healthcare systems in the country. Also, it has been suggested that a more restrictive recommendation can be more effective in reducing the number of infected subjects [1,[25][26][27][28].…”