Data-driven study of the COVID-19 pandemic via age-structured modelling and prediction of the health system failure in Brazil amid diverse intervention strategies

Abstract

In this work we propose a data-driven age-structured census-based SIRD-like epidemiological model capable of forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. We model the current scenario of closed schools and universities, social distancing of people above sixty years old and voluntary home quarantine to show that it is still not enough to protect the health system by explicitly computing the demand for hospital intensive care units. We also show that an urgent intense quarantine might be the only solution to avoid the collapse of the health system and, consequently, to minimize the quantity of deaths. On the other hand, we demonstrate that the relaxation of the already imposed control measures in the next days would be catastrophic.

Insufficient social distancing may contribute to COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Ijuí city in Brazil

“…Our data indicates that that preventive behavior among the population of Ijuí, related to the SDA recommendation and DPR, did not reach 70% participation in social distancing in any of the five waves of the survey. We mentioned the threshold of 70% since it was proposed early that maintaining social distancing at a maximum of 76% could prevent 90,000 COVID-19-related deaths and keep intensive care units in São Paulo from being overwhelmed [ 38 ]. As of November 23, 2020, São Paulo has registered more than 394,000 COVID-19 cases and 14,000 deaths [ 7 ], suggesting that maintaining and strengthening current social distancing measures, isolating COVID cases, and quarantining people who have been in contact with others who have tested positive, is absolutely vital to avoid serious stress to Brazil’s healthcare system.…”

“…As of November 23, 2020, São Paulo has registered more than 394,000 COVID-19 cases and 14,000 deaths [ 7 ], suggesting that maintaining and strengthening current social distancing measures, isolating COVID cases, and quarantining people who have been in contact with others who have tested positive, is absolutely vital to avoid serious stress to Brazil’s healthcare system. Furthermore, it has been suggested that more restrictive recommendations can be more effective in reducing the number of infected subjects [ 1 , 38 – 41 ], and it is necessary to apply such recommendations immediately and rigorously, especially to control the spread of COVID-19 in schools, since children and teenagers may have a disproportional contribution to an increase in the transmission rates [ 18 ]. However, as reported by WHO, many countries have reported an increase in “pandemic fatigue” among the population, characterized by lack of motivation to follow the recommended social distancing behaviors to protect themselves and others from the virus (WHO) [ 42 ].…”

INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE BEHAVIORS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN BRAZIL: simulations on economic theorical models

“…Such public policies aim to guarantee the survival of individuals during restrictions on economic activities (AQUINO, 2020). Besides, the cooperation of individuals is also essential to the effectiveness of measures of social distancing, aiming to avoid the collapse of the health system in the country 1 (CANABARRO et al, 2020).…”

“…1 A recently published study showed that maintaining and strengthening measures of social distancing, quarantine, and isolation of positive cases was necessary to prevent the collapse of health systems in Brazil. (CANABARRO et al, 2020).…”

Individual and Collective Decision- Making During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Simulations on Game Theory and the Tragedy of the Commons

“…A recently published study showed that maintaining and strengthening measures of social distancing, quarantine, and isolation of positive cases was necessary to prevent the collapse of health systems in Brazil (CANABARRO et al, 2020)…”