Data-driven projections suggest large opportunities to improve Europe’s soybean self-sufficiency under climate change

Guilpart, Nicolas; Iizumi, Toshichika; Makowski, David

doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00481-3

Cited by 42 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 82 publications

(96 reference statements)

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“…The study of Guilpart et al (2022) based on yield and climatic data resulted in yields around 2 t.ha À1 in 2050 with RCP 8.5 for continental Europe. However, these authors considered soybean only as a rainfed crop and did not predict how improved crop management or variety choice might impact these yields in the future (especially maturity groups).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous reports have concluded to potential benefits of introducing legumes (including soybean) in cereal-based cropping systems (Peoples et al, 2009;Voisin et al, 2014;Schneider and Huyghe, 2015;Zander et al, 2016;Guinet et al, 2020;Ditzler et al, 2021). Producing more non-GM soybean in Europe would thus reduce the use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Guilpart et al, 2022), as the recommendation is to avoid N applications on soybean and optimize the N fixation capacities of the crop through inoculation. In spite of lower amounts of residual soil N following soybean as compared to pea or fababean, this could be mentioned as a favourable effect for the N economy of the rotation (Debaeke et al, 1996;Guinet et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such estimates on future soybean cropping opportunities in Europe are mostly based on the projection of soybean phenology under future climate, using simple photo-thermal algorithms (Lamichhane et al, 2020;Schoving et al, 2020). Data-driven approaches based on climatic variables and soybean yield statistics also suggest that the soybean production potential in Europe will significantly increase in the future with global warming (Guilpart et al, 2022). From yield projections by 2050, the latter estimated the necessary cropland area to be devoted to soybean in the future to reach 50% and 100% of self-sufficiency in Europe.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Could domestic soybean production avoid Europe’s protein imports in 2050?

Debaeke

Forslund

Guyomard³

et al. 2022

OCL

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The European Union has a high demand for plant proteins for food and feed. Its self-sufficiency rate is about 5% for soya crude proteins. The European Union and its Member States have launched initiatives for reducing soya imports that come mainly from South America and promoting domestic production of protein-rich crops. In the future, climate suitability for soybean cultivation is likely to increase in oceanic and continental Europe. The recent AE2050 study (INRAE. 2020. Role of European agriculture in world trade by 2050: Balancing climate change and global food security issues. Summary report of the study. INRAE (France), 12 p; Tibi A, Forslund A, Debaeke P, et al. 2020. Place des agricultures européennes dans le monde à l’horizon 2050 : entre enjeux climatiques et défis de la sécurité alimentaire. Rapport de synthèse de l’étude. INRAE (France), 159 p + Annexes) concluded that, in some parts of Europe (defined here as the European Union-27 plus other Balkan countries, Switzerland, Norway and the United Kingdom), cropland requirements in 2050 may be lower than “2010” cropland areas given possible changes in European food demand (related to glooming demographic growth and under the assumption of healthy diets) and in crop yields (influenced by technological developments and climate change). In this study, we examine to what extent this “cropland surplus” could be used to increase soybean production in Europe and reduce the dependency ratio on protein imports. Only in the case of a Healthy Diets scenario (less meat consumption, inducing less animals fed with cakes), substantial soybean acreages could be envisaged to reduce the European reliance on imports. In addition to the surplus allowed by increasing yields, land surplus was also made available by the reduction of livestock production and its grain feed requirements. The best-case scenario, combining healthy diets and trend-based yield growth, would reduce European imports to only 15% of its total domestic requirements versus 45% for the Trend-based Diets scenario. This can be compared to a dependency rate of 51% in our base year “2010”, and of 53%–54% for the two 2050 scenarios without growing soybean on cropland surplus. If the range of these quite optimistic estimations of surplus land dedicated to soybean was reduced to more plausible levels (limited to 10% of annual field cropland in 2050) and considering current soybean yield levels (“2019” instead of “2010”), the decrease in Europe’s oil cake imports levels would be lower. However, its dependency rate could still be reduced from 54% to 46% in the Trend-based Diets scenario, and from 53% to 38% in the Healthy Diets scenario. One important conclusion is that adopting healthy diets would allow a significant reduction of imports of soybean cakes from abroad with expected environmental benefits in Europe and overseas. On the supply side, challenges for a higher self-sufficiency rate of proteins in Europe resulting from the development of soybean domestic production will come from both available and suitable crop areas, attainable yields and relative profitability.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Could domestic soybean production avoid Europe’s protein imports in 2050?

Debaeke

Forslund

Guyomard³

et al. 2022

OCL

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“…The yield was approximated as average over the areas. This is a robust approach, however, more detailed evaluation and yield predictions as shown by Guilpart et al (2022) need to be performed. This could slightly change the resulting numbers for cultivation areas, but would most likely not affect the main conclusions of this study.…”

Section: Limitations Of the Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…European protein self-sufficiency could be highly improved by expanding the share of cropland dedicated to soybean or other grain legume production (Guilpart et al, 2022). Despite certain disadvantages of current varieties, the legume species characterized in Table 2 are interesting for cultivation in Europe, especially Switzerland: Peas (Pisum sativum L.) can be sown up to 600 m a.s.l.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable increase in the self-sufficiency of Swiss agriculture – the potential of grain legumes in a traditionally meat- and dairy-based production

Keller

Oppliger

Chassot

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Switzerland is a global hotspot in dairy production and has above-average values of per-capita meat consumption. Its livestock production causes high environmental costs and is highly depending on concentrated feed imports. At the same time, the local grain legume production is negligible and diets of Swiss population become more and more plant-based. The consumption of legume protein has two main advantages over meat protein: legume-based protein has a lower environmental footprint due to biological nitrogen fixation and it has a healthy composition. This study evaluates the potential of grain legumes to diversify agricultural products while increasing sustainable food production and self-sufficiency. Especially peas and faba beans show potential for the Swiss agriculture but require adaptions in policy, pricing and breeding based on a qualitative assessment of expert opinions. A quantitative analysis using Geographic Information system (GIS) showed that when only suitable arable land (Scenario I) is used for grain legume production, more than 100% of Switzerland's meat protein consumption could be covered by legume-based proteins. Converting suitable meadows into additional arable land for legume production (Scenario II) would further increase this potential: 180% of the currently consumed meat protein could be generated. The increase in legume area could be compensated by forage area, i.e., leys and silage maize. Replacing 632,500 t of concentrated feed import additionally, the current monogastric and ruminant production would decrase by 31 and 39%, respectively. The ramped up production of legume protein (175,630 t) could replace the decrease in animal-based proteins (from milk and meat) and substantially increase self-sufficiency of Swiss agriculture. Increasing legume production is one promising path for Swiss agriculture toward more sustainability allowing to decrease environmental costs, such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nitrogen pollution, and pressure on deforestation through soybean import. To stimulate legume production, not only policy needs to increase support, but also the supply chain of the agricultural and food industry are to be built up in parallel. Besides that, the agricultural management of legume production needs to be improved and new varieties adapted to current and future requirements are to be developed.

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Alternatives for sustainable weed control in single‐ and double‐cropped soybean: A case study for Mediterranean irrigated conditions

Simon‐Miquel¹,

Reckling²,

Guinjuan³

et al. 2023

Agronomy Journal

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The irrigated cropping systems in South Europe could benefit from soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] introduction in their maize (Zea mays L.)‐based crop rotations. However, sustainable weed management strategies are needed for soybean growers under Mediterranean irrigated conditions. This work aimed to assess the weed control efficacy, and the soybean performance, of alternative management practices for single‐ and double‐cropped soybean. Two field experiments were carried out in northeast Spain in the period 2019–2021. Row width narrowing (75–37.5 cm), herbicide application (yes/no), and roller‐crimped rye [Secale cereal (L.) M.Bieb.] cover crop (yes/no) were assessed in the single cropping system experiment (SCS). In the barley‐soybean double cropping system experiment (DCS), row width narrowing and herbicide application were assessed. In the SCS, the presence of rye cover crop reduced weed biomass up to 92% compared to the controls without herbicide and cover crop in 2020. In 2021, no effect of the cover crop on weed pressure was found due to the low amount of rye biomass accumulated (11.8 and 3.4 ton DM ha−1 in 2020 and 2021, respectively). In the DCS, herbicide application attained the expected weed control. Row width narrowing to 37.5 cm did not have an impact on weed pressure nor on soybean yield in either experiment. We concluded that herbicide reduction for single‐cropped soybean under Mediterranean irrigated conditions can be achieved by roller‐crimping a rye cover crop, provided enough rye biomass is accumulated. In the DCS, our results indicated that further research is needed to find alternatives to chemical weed control.

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Data-driven projections suggest large opportunities to improve Europe’s soybean self-sufficiency under climate change

Cited by 42 publications

References 82 publications

Could domestic soybean production avoid Europe’s protein imports in 2050?

Could domestic soybean production avoid Europe’s protein imports in 2050?

Sustainable increase in the self-sufficiency of Swiss agriculture – the potential of grain legumes in a traditionally meat- and dairy-based production

Alternatives for sustainable weed control in single‐ and double‐cropped soybean: A case study for Mediterranean irrigated conditions

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