Data-based comparison of seasonality-based regional flood frequency methods

Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Cunderlik, Juraj M.; St‐Hilaire, André; Barbet, Marc; Bruneau, Pierre; Bobée, Bernard

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.023

Cited by 109 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…A large number of comparative studies of FFA implementations have been reported in the research literature (e.g., Hosking et al, 1985;Gunasekara and Cunnane, 1992;Kroll and Stedinger, 1996;GREHYS, 1996;Ouarda et al, 2006;Meshgi and Khalili, 2009;Sankarasubramanian and Srinivasan, 1999). The comparison framework varies from one study to another, and can be based on Monte Carlo simulations, statistical tests, graphical methods and so on.…”

Section: Challenges Facing the Evaluation And Comparison Of Ffa Appromentioning

confidence: 99%

A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

Kochanek

Renard²,

Arnaud³

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) aims at estimating quantiles with large return periods for an extreme discharge variable. Many FFA implementations are used in operational practice in France. These implementations range from the estimation of a pre-specified distribution to continuous simulation approaches using a rainfall simulator coupled with a rainfall-runoff model. This diversity of approaches raises questions regarding the limits of each implementation and calls for a nation-wide comparison of their predictive performances.This paper presents the results of a national comparison of the main FFA implementations used in France. More accurately, eight implementations are considered, corresponding to the local, regional and local-regional estimation of Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, as well as the local and regional versions of a continuous simulation approach. A data-based comparison framework is applied to these eight competitors to evaluate their predictive performances in terms of reliability and stability, using daily flow data from more than 1000 gauging stations in France.Results from this comparative exercise suggest that two implementations dominate their competitors in terms of predictive performances, namely the local version of the continuous simulation approach and the local-regional estimation of a GEV distribution. More specific conclusions include the following: (i) the Gumbel distribution is not suitable for Mediterranean catchments, since this distribution demonstrably leads to an underestimation of flood quantiles; (ii) the local estimation of a GEV distribution is not recommended, because the difficulty in estimating the shape parameter results in frequent predictive failures; (iii) all the purely regional implementations evaluated in this study displayed a quite poor reliability, suggesting that prediction in completely ungauged catchments remains a challenge.

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Section: Challenges Facing the Evaluation And Comparison Of Ffa Appromentioning

confidence: 99%

A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

Kochanek

Renard²,

Arnaud³

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…The annual maximum (AM), seasonal maximum (SM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling methods play an important role in flood frequency analysis. Ouarda et al (1993Ouarda et al ( , 2006 proposed two variations of a graphical procedure for determination of river flood season from POT data. Cunderlik et al (2004) and Chen et al, (2010) used the relative frequency (RF) method and the directional statistics (DS) method to identify the seasonality.…”

Section: Flood Seasonality Identification Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

Risk analysis for flood control operation of seasonal flood-limited water level incorporating inflow forecasting error

Zhou

Guo

2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The seasonal flood-limited water level (FLWL), which reflects the seasonal flood information, plays an important role in governing the trade-off between reservoir flood control and conservation. A risk analysis model for flood control operation of seasonal FLWL incorporating the inflow forecasting error was proposed and developed. The variable kernel estimation is implemented for deriving the inflow forecasting error density. The synthetic inflow incorporating forecasting error is simulated by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) according to the inflow forecasting error density. The risk analysis for seasonal FLWL control was estimated by MCS based on a combination of the forecasting inflow lead-time, seasonal design flood hydrographs and seasonal operation rules. The Three Gorges reservoir is selected as a case study. The application results indicate that the seasonal FLWL control can effectively enhance flood water utilization rate without lowering the annual flood control standard.

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“…Dans son étude comparative, GREHYS (1996a, b) a montré que, au niveau de l'estimation régionale, la méthode de l'indice de crue (DALRYMPLE, 1960) et les méthodes régressives (NGUYEN et PANDEY, 1994;OUARDA et al, 2006;SHU et BURN, 2004b) L'approche basée sur la régression permet d'établir une relation entre les variables hydrologiques et les variables explicatives physiographiques ou météorologiques (surface drainée, pente du cours d'eau, pourcentage de l'aire du bassin couverte de forêt, surface contrôlée par les lacs et marais, précipitation moyenne annuelle, neige au sol à une date donnée, etc.). Elle est simple, rapide et permet d'utiliser des distributions différentes pour les différents sites de la région.…”

Section: Méthodes D'estimation Régionaleunclassified

“…., 2000). OUARDA et al, (2006) ont présenté une comparaison des trois principales approches pour la description de la saisonnalité des crues : la méthode fondée sur les statistiques directionnelles, l'approche graphique basée sur les données de dépassement, et la méthode basée sur les fréquences relatives d'occurrence des crues. Les méthodes sont appliquées à un ensemble de bassins versants dans la province de Québec (Canada).…”

Section: La Saisonnalité Des Extrêmes Hydrologiquesunclassified

Synthèse des développements récents en analyse régionale des extrêmes hydrologiques

Ouarda

St‐Hilaire

Bobée

2008

rseau

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SYNTHÈSE DES DÉVELOPPEMENTS RÉCENTS EN ANALYSE RÉGIONALE DES EXTRÊMES HYDROLOGIQUES ABSTRACTAdequate estimation of extreme hydrological variables is essential for the rational design and operation of a variety of hydraulic structures, due to the significant risk that is associated with these activities. Local frequency analysis is commonly used for the estimation of extreme hydrological events at sites where an adequate amount of data is available. However, data are usually only collected at a relatively limited number of sites. In practice, it frequently happens that little or no streamflow data is available at a site of interest (where a dam is to be constructed for example). In such cases, hydrologists can utilize a regional flood frequency procedure, relying on data available from other basins with a similar hydrologic regime.Various methods have been developed over the last few years for the regional analysis of extreme hydrological events. These regionalization approaches aim to estimate different characteristics of the extreme hydrological phenomena of interest, make different assumptions and hypotheses concerning these hydrological phenomena, rely on various types of data, and often fall under completely different theories. The present paper aims to review and classify recent developments in regional frequency analysis of extreme hydrological variables. Analyse régionale des extrêmes hydrologiques 220The specific objectives of the paper are to: i) review the main recent developments in regional hydrologic modeling that have been proposed during the last few years; ii) classify these developments into different groups according to the theoretical background of the method, its specific objectives, and the characteristics of hydrological extreme phenomena it is intended to deal with; iii) propose a comprehensive discussion of these methods, and point out the hypotheses, limitations, data requirements, and potential of each one; iv) identify the new challenges facing engineers in terms of regional frequency analysis of hydrological extremes; and v) propose potential promising directions for future research work which aim to meet these new challenges.Recent developments reviewed in the present paper include improvements in classical approaches for regional delineation and for information transfer, methods combining the delineation and estimation steps, seasonality-based methods, multivariate models for regional frequency analysis, the QdF approach, non stationary models, and approaches for the combination of local and regional data. The paper provides also a discussion of the various hydrological variables treated with regional estimation methodologies, comparative studies of these methodologies, and practical tools that were developed for regional frequency analysis. It is hoped that this document will contribute towards closing the gap between theory and practice, by narrowing the wide body of literature that is available, and by providing comprehensive propositions for regional frequency analysis approache...

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Data-based comparison of seasonality-based regional flood frequency methods

Cited by 109 publications

References 27 publications

A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

Risk analysis for flood control operation of seasonal flood-limited water level incorporating inflow forecasting error

Synthèse des développements récents en analyse régionale des extrêmes hydrologiques

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