Data Assimilation of Model Predictions of Long-Time Evolution of Cs-137 Deposition on Terrain

Abstract

The paper presents a scheme for estimation of spatio-temporal evolution of groundshine dose from radionuclides deposited on terrain in long-time horizon. Groundshine dose mitigation is modeled via semi-empirical formulas taking into account environmental and decay processes. We are aware of the fact that the model is imperfect and special attention is paid to accounting for model error, which is estimated. Methods of Bayesian filtering are applied to the problem. Because of high dimensionality of the problem a parametrization of model error covariance structure has to be introduced. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate utilization of marginalized particle filter for estimating of covariance-model parameters and distribution of groundshine dose.