Das Konzept des friedlichen Machtübergangs

A tale of two power transitions: Capabilities, satisfaction, and the will to power in the relations between the United Kingdom, the United States, and Imperial Germany

“…35 The second of these wars, the so-called German War, can even be regarded as a micro-power transition war concerning the intra-German state system. This German War of 1866 confirms PTT, as it involves all the elements that the theory regards as important (Rauch, 2014: 141–143). Some observers note that this German WTP included a defensive moment that embraced power politics in order to sustain the German position which was seen as threatened by the other powers (Hillgruber, 1980: 21; Schöllgen, 2005: 54).…”

“…It thus had to choose how to deal with these different rising powers. While the United Kingdom was neither absolutely hostile toward Germany nor absolutely friendly toward the United States (Rauch, 2014: 148–151), it makes total sense, within my framework, that it chose to rather accommodate the one rising power (the United States) that was showing relatively less dissatisfaction and much less WTP. Today, the power constellation is also more complex than traditional PTT would expect, but in a different way: among a number of rising powers, China—which is expected to overtake the United States in GDP terms by the end of the next decade—is clearly the prime contender.…”

“… 6. This section builds on my previous discussion on the WTP in Rauch (2015) and Rauch (2014: Chapter 8). …”

“… 7. I deal with the WTP and its relationship to the other variables at length elsewhere. See Rauch (2014: 257–262). It is worth mentioning here that satisfaction and WTP are probably highly correlated, thus potentially creating a problem of equifinality. …”