Damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model and its application to forecasting agricultural output value share and employment share

Abstract

PurposeThe damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model is proposed for the problem of forecasting the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment in China.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model was developed based on the idea of discrete modelling by introducing a damping accumulated generating operator and power index. The new model can better identify the non-linear characteristics existing between different factors in the multivariate system and can accurately describe and forecast the trend of changes between data series and each of them.FindingsThe validity and rationality of the new model are verified through numerical experiment. It is forecasted that in 2023, the share of agricultural output value in China will be 7.14% and the share of agricultural employment will be 21.98%, with an overall decreasing trend.Practical implicationsThe simultaneous decline in the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment is a common feature of countries that have achieved agricultural modernisation. Accurate forecasts of the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment can provide an important scientific basis for formulating appropriate agricultural development targets and policies in China.Originality/valueThe new model proposed in this study fully considers the importance of new information and has higher stability. The differential evolutionary algorithm was used to optimise the model parameters.