Dam risk assessment based on univariate versus bivariate statistical approaches: a case study for Argentina

Poduje, Ana Claudia Callau; Belli, Aslan; Haberlandt, Uwe

doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.871014

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 29 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In addition, since the aim of FFA is not the forecasting, it is not appropriate to validate on sub‐samples (e.g. Callau Poduje et al, 2014; Reddy & Ganguli, 2012; Requena et al, 2013; Salvadori & De Michele, 2004; Zhang & Singh, 2006). The depth functions are used in identifying multivariate outliers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Through the combination of two or more hydrological variables, mainly Qp and V , provide more reliability for hydraulic structure designing, water reservoir management, flood risk assessment and support flood mitigation in the studied basins (e.g. Balistrocchi et al, 2017; Callau Poduje et al, 2014; Jiang et al, 2019; Liu et al, 2019; Reddy & Ganguli, 2012; Requena et al, 2013; Salvadori & De Michele, 2004; Zhang & Singh, 2006; Zhou et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Multivariate FFA constitutes a powerful tool allowing the dimensioning of suitable installations based on a more accurate flood risk assessment (e.g. Balistrocchi, Orlandini, Ranzi, & Bacchi, 2017; Callau Poduje, Belli, & Haberlandt, 2014; Jiang, Yang, & Tatano, 2019; Liu, Li, Ma, Jia, & Su, 2019; Zhou, Liu, Jin, & Hu, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Complete multivariate flood frequency analysis, applied to northern Algeria

Karahaçane

Meddi²,

Chebana³

et al. 2020

J Flood Risk Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme hydrologic events are commonly described by several dependent characteristics, such as duration, volume and peak flow for floods. Traditionally in Algeria and North Africa, flood frequency analysis (FFA) is conducted as a univariate approach focusing separately on each single of flood characteristics. On the other hand, elsewhere, multivariate FFA studies have been conducted focusing on some FFA steps (especially modelling). The current study aims to consider complete multivariate FFA at-site case studies in northern Algeria using 11 hydrometric stations. It is also among the first studies dealing with multivariate FFA in a complete way by considering all the required steps of the analysis (multivariate outliers detection, multivariate assumptions testing and copula fitting) and on datasets from Algeria. Multivariate stationarity, homogeneity and independence assumptions have been well verified before modelling. The Weibull distribution is mostly selected as margin distribution for the duration, volume and peak flow series. Frank, Clayton and Gumbel copulas are commonly selected to describe the dependence structure on the three flood pairs of variables. These findings should be interesting in water management and flood risk assessment in these regions. Combining these flood characteristics enables the design of more efficient hydraulic structures.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Complete multivariate flood frequency analysis, applied to northern Algeria

Karahaçane

Meddi²,

Chebana³

et al. 2020

J Flood Risk Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As regards the uncertainties in overtopping risk analysis, the effects of uncertainties in flood, reservoir characteristics, outflow discharge, initial water surface level, wind velocity, dam height, and so on have been well investigated (e.g., [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]). Regarding approaches for overtopping risk analysis, a variety of approaches have been applied, such as stochastic differential equations (e.g., [14]), bivariate copula functions (e.g., [15][16][17]), sequential uncertainty fitting method (e.g., [18]), Latin hypercube sampling (e.g., [19,20]), maximum entropy method (e.g., [21]), and Bayesian network (e.g., [22][23][24]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures

Liu

2020

Complexity

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

For modern high earth dams, sufficient safety margin is considered in the designs of flood discharge capacity and dam crest elevation to prevent flood overtopping. However, for high earth dams which may induce catastrophic consequences, during their long operational period, extremely hazardous scenarios which could occur and threaten dam safety need to be considered. For the earth dams located in areas with intensive seismicity, there is a possible scenario that the release structures fail due to seismic landslides and gate failures caused by a severe earthquake when the flood begins to enter the reservoir. Thus, it is desirable to investigate the influence of failure duration of release structures on dam overtopping risk. Based on the Bayesian network, a methodology for overtopping risk analysis of earth dams considering effects of failure duration of release structures is proposed. The overtopping risk of the PBG earth-rockfill dam was analyzed to illustrate the methodology. The critical release structures which dominate the dam overtopping risk are identified. The dam overtopping risk is most sensitive to the failure duration of the spillway. The tolerable failure duration of the spillway is approximately 3 days, and when the failure duration of the spillway reaches 4 days, the dam overtopping risk drastically rises to an unacceptable level. The case study suggests that the proposed methodology could be helpful to analyze the influences of possible failure durations of release structures on dam overtopping risk and could facilitate preparation for emergency plans.

show abstract

“…These multivariate frequency analysis approaches take the relationship between hydrological elements into consideration, and thus can better represent the occurrence of floods (Mediero et al 2010, Salas andObeysekera 2014). They usually use some joint distribution functions, such as a copula function, to fit the joint distributions of multiple flood elements (Grimaldi and Serinaldi 2006, Zhang and Singh 2006, Renard and Lang 2007, Volpi and Fiori 2012, Callau Poduje et al 2014. The nonstationary multivariate distributions were also analysed using time-varying copula functions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis and its implication for the Three Gorges Dam, China

Dong

Zhang

Lall

et al. 2019

Hydrological Sciences Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study proposes an improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis by investigating the relationship between flood peak and flood volume, using the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), China, for verification. First, the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) is used as the prior distribution. Then, under Bayesian theory, the prior distribution is updated using the conditional distribution, which is derived from the copula function. The results show that the improvement of the proposed model is significant compared with the GAMLSS-based prior distribution. Meanwhile, selection of a suitable prior distribution has a significant effect on the results of the improvement. For applications to the TGD, the nonstationary model can obviously increase the engineering management benefits and reduce the perceived risks of large floods. This study provides guidance for the dynamic management of hydraulic engineering under nonstationary conditions.

show abstract

Dam risk assessment based on univariate versus bivariate statistical approaches: a case study for Argentina

Cited by 15 publications

References 29 publications

Complete multivariate flood frequency analysis, applied to northern Algeria

Complete multivariate flood frequency analysis, applied to northern Algeria

Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures

An improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis and its implication for the Three Gorges Dam, China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About